3 hits is not the average, both 2 hits and 3 hits have the same probability (35%) as do 4 and 5 (15%). Factoring in the weighted probabilities, LD actually slightly outdamages LO on average (103.75 vs 100.75). Also, 4-hit LD vs 3-hit LO is roughly the same (100 vs 97.5), as is 5-hit LD vs 4-LO...