Official Smogon Fantasy Football Thread - 2015-16 Edition

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This was my gut feeling as well, enough to spend $15 on Tannehill for this week (and some future juicy matchups). Manning's O-Line is banged up and his floor is scary, and even though the Jets have been torn up by opposing QBs lately, I feel like Tannehill has a safer floor because the Jets have the potential to dominate Time of Possession, and a similar if not higher ceiling.
similarly i think i'm going to start Bengals v. Austin Davis instead of Broncos v. Phillip Rivers...
 
starting Tannehill instead of Manning in standard.

i also think i'm going to start Funchess in .5ppr over Maclin because fuck that guy.
actually I'm going back on this

the Jets have a good enough offense and the Giants a bad enough defense that the Jets can get a lead and run with it pretty early on, forcing Eli to play catch up mode like he did last week vs the Redskins and like Tannehill did at the end of the game last week vs the Jets. The Jets have an elite rush D, so the Giants might have to give up running the ball fairly quickly. Brady attempted 54 passes against the Jets when they played earlier this year, and Eli might just hit 40-45+. With Revis out, no one can guard ODB, so I'm thinking Eli will have a pretty good fantasy day simply due to volume. Tannehill might still have the safer floor, but if the Miami offense struggles like it did last week and the Ravens don't get a big enough lead to enforce garbage time, I don't think he has the same chance at a big day as Eli does.
 

Mr.E

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Not even the ballsiest defensive play of the week. Maybe it's not even that ballsy period with New England's injuries. New Orleans, however, managed a solid 13 against Carolina despite the -4 for points allowed.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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why are we laughing?

edit: in other news I had to win and in BUT win by 24+ in smogonbomb league C. Was leading by 17 going into last night. <3 Tony Brown.
 
why are we laughing?

edit: in other news I had to win and in BUT win by 24+ in smogonbomb league C. Was leading by 17 going into last night. <3 Tony Brown.
>started Tennehill
>started Lacy
>sat ARob
>still won

>started Crokett
>started Funchess
>sat Maclin
>fuck Maclin
>still won
 
unless terrance williams or dan bailey have career nights, my money league has in the makings the potential of a 6-way tie for 6th place. incredibly, all 6 of these teams are playing the other 6 teams (5 playoffs teams + the last place team).

naturally I spent an hour figuring out all 64 scenarios. I make the playoffs in 44 of them :^)
 
Untitleddfhdh.png

I think I lost. Reed scores half the time and he hits 70 yards half the time. So I think I have about a 25% chance here despite blowing out every other team in my league :(
 

Mr.E

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Monday, 8:30 PM.

One game back from moot for the 4th and final playoff spot in Smogon League A, solid points scored lead and I'm looking at 140+ this week. Tied with Texas and Huy. Texas already lost, I play Huy next week. All I need is a combined 13 from DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed for WaterBomb to beat moot, myself just over 9 points from McFadden to beat Stallion, the only person to secure a playoff spot and all but locked up the #1 seed already. Cautiously optimistic.

2:00 left in the game.

Nothing but pain, despair, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas. The Romo-less Cowboys are as offensively inept as they always are, the Redskins are who we thought they were. Absolutely no relevant fantasy football scoring has occured, unless you're playing one of the kickers. I think they've outscored any combination of two skill position players in this game, not because they've kicked an ungodly number of field goals but because the offenses have simply been that incompetent. Hopkins even missed two.

1:47 remaining.

Suddenly, Dallas and Washington do what they do best: zany fucking shit at the end of the game that inexplicably leads to a shitton of points scored that shouldn't be. DJax makes one of the most retarded plays of the year by running backwards 20 yards, across the entire width of the field and fumbles it! Dallas manages to not screw it up and McFadden punches in the touchdown!

All it takes is 30 seconds for Dallas to revert to Dallas. Long kickoff return, questionable facemask penalty, and Jackson catches a touchdown pass from 30 yards out! WaterBomb has won, moot is vanquished! Unfortunately, I'm still down by .64 points but Dallas has time to drive themselves. Dallas is also pretty likely to not score and serve me an overtime period where McFadden is all but guaranteed more stats.

0:44 remaining.

Surely McFadden can rush once for 7 yards, right? Dallas has two timeouts and they just need a FG. Maybe catch a quick screen or swing pass to beat one blitz, and ultimately I should still have overtime where he's very likely to get more stats.

Oh boy, the return past the 40. Matt Cassel doesn't actually throw the ball to his running back, whether he's open or not, and the coaching staff has seemingly forgotten that RB is a valid pass-catching position since Dunbar went down (even though McFadden is a good receiver). 20 yards to Dez, two incompletions to Witten and we have a makeable 54-yarder for one of the best kickers in the game. And... it's good. Dallas wins. Yay Dallas. That's my team...

144.80 - 145.54

As a Dallas fan, I've never been more disappointed to see Bailey kick a game-winning 50-yard FG. :(

TL;DR












Now, I'm still not technically out of it yet. Me and Stallion are close enough that a stat correction could legitimately flip the result. Failing that, my play-in scenario next week is fairly improbable but not quite out of the realm of possibility: I beat Huy by 77+, Texas loses again (to #3 seed kd24) or I outscore him by 63, and moot loses again (to #2 seed tad38). Probably not gonna happen but it wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world...

I just needed less than one more point and my play-in scenario was simply "beat Huy." (Well, and moot doesn't win and outscore me by 80+.) Feels bad man.
 
first game of the playoffs this weekend. my team is solid at every position except one: QB. i can't start derek carr against the broncos on the road.

problem is: the are only 3 viable QBs on the waiver wire: cousins, cutler and mariota. which one should i pick up? mariota's got the jets on the road, cutler has washington at home and cousins obviously chicago on the road.
 
Mariota

Jets can't stop the pass without Revis (who should miss this game too, but watch it) and the Titans won't be able to run the ball on them. Titans allowed tons of points to Jacksonville, and I expect another shoot out in NY.

Washington Chicago could end up another 17-14 type game.
 

Stallion

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That narrow win feelsgoodman.jpg especially as Mr. E didn't rate my team too highly at the season, now I've got the number one seed at 11-2 and the highest points for in league A.

In league B however, this defending champ went 6-7 with the second most points scored in the league (and third place wasn't even close). Yep I had that fucked of a season...
 
lmao you guys, the top scoring team in my league placed 10th out of 12 (5-8)

fantasy football is bullshit

i placed 9th at 6-7 but if i had started cam instead of rivers in week 9 (the CAR/GB game), i would be 7-6 in the playoffs. oh well.
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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My suspicions have been confirmed about my terrible scheduling luck in League A

To this point, 7 wins for my team would have me in a playoff position, anything more would have me locked in



Based on probability I "should" have about 8.5 wins

RIP me
 
My suspicions have been confirmed about my terrible scheduling luck in League A

To this point, 7 wins for my team would have me in a playoff position, anything more would have me locked in

Based on probability I "should" have about 8.5 wins

RIP me
how did you calculate this?

CBS leagues have something called "Breakdown" which is just "your record vs every team every week." my team has a "Breakdown" record of 87-56, and a real record of 6-7 (playoffs don't start until after next week). that's about a 61% win percentage. I wasn't very good at statistics, but I think that's a (13 choose x)*(0.61^x)*(0.39^(1-x)) chance at any record, right? if so that's like a 20% chance of me getting 6 or fewer wins, which is fair.

I actually had the most points scored against me or relatively close (10-30 points) in 4/4 leagues this year. I'm not salty about it except for maybe the case above, where I *should* make the playoffs, because two of those teams sucked and one has the 2nd seed anyway. I was just fortunate to only lose two players to season ending injuries in all 4 leagues combined (Bell and Lynch) which is pretty lucky considering this season...
 

Texas Cloverleaf

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how did you calculate this?

CBS leagues have something called "Breakdown" which is just "your record vs every team every week." my team has a "Breakdown" record of 87-56, and a real record of 6-7 (playoffs don't start until after next week). that's about a 61% win percentage. I wasn't very good at statistics, but I think that's a (13 choose x)*(0.61^x)*(0.39^(1-x)) chance at any record, right? if so that's like a 20% chance of me getting 6 or fewer wins, which is fair.

I actually had the most points scored against me or relatively close (10-30 points) in 4/4 leagues this year. I'm not salty about it except for maybe the case above, where I *should* make the playoffs, because two of those teams sucked and one has the 2nd seed anyway. I was just fortunate to only lose two players to season ending injuries in all 4 leagues combined (Bell and Lynch) which is pretty lucky considering this season...
reddit guy made an app

https://blockee.shinyapps.io/BadLuckFF

I've also had pretty poor luck in more of my leagues, with this one being the most significant instance. I accept some of the blame for that luck, as I suspect a reasonable proportion was due to my drafting strategies resulting in overexposure to certain players and therefore not getting any shares in guys like Fitz or Hopkins
 

WaterBomb

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upload_2015-12-9_8-11-52.png


Did the app just for kicks with the results from another league. I'm currently 6-7, whereas the graph tells me I should have won at least 7. Not that far off though so no real complaints, it's not like I was 4-9 or 3-10 or something. In every league every year there are 1-2 teams that get very lucky with injuries/scoring/matchups and 1-2 teams that get fairly bad luck on the same front. The rest of the teams in the middle are still affected but usually only by 1 or 2 spots in the standings. Fantasy, for the most part, shakes out how it should. We all (including myself) just fall into that confirmation bias trap and get salty over a championship we think we could have won. In the end we'll still come back and play next year like we always do because we love this game so much.
 
Doing that app made me realize how terribly inconsistent my team was.

In ascending rank order, I finished:

1, 1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 5, 7, 8, 8, 10, 10, 10

I never lost when I finished top 3, and never won when I did not.

Still only 86% at being 7-6 Or better, so not quite as bad :pirate:
 

WaterBomb

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Looks like you started strong and then tapered off as the season went on (unless those numbers are not chronological)
 
finished 9-4, #1 seed.
upload_2015-12-9_12-6-10.png


- Your lowest win total in the simulations was 5 This win total happened in 36 of the 10,000 simulations.

- Your highest win total in the simulations was 12 This win total happened in 25 of the 10,000 simulations.

- You needed 8 wins to reach the playoffs. You met or exceeded that number in 83.62 % of the 10,000 simulations.

- You won 9 times. That win total is equal to or greater than the win total in 79.56 % of the 10,000 simulations.

finished 7-6, #4 seed.
upload_2015-12-9_12-16-1.png


- Your lowest win total in the simulations was 4 This win total happened in 23 of the 10,000 simulations.

- Your highest win total in the simulations was 11 This win total happened in 18 of the 10,000 simulations.

- You needed 7 wins to reach the playoffs. You met or exceeded that number in 84.11 % of the 10,000 simulations.

- You won 7 times. That win total is equal to or greater than the win total in 46.43 % of the 10,000 simulations.
 
Looks like you started strong and then tapered off as the season went on (unless those numbers are not chronological)
nah they're not

actually all 3 10th placed finished were in my first 3 weeks, when I (obviously) went 0-3. From week 3 until he got hurt it almost made me regret drafting Bell... :(
 
Fun stuff to lose your RB1 (Ingram) without warning right before the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully the Jags coaching staff have seen the light and give Yeldon all the goal line carries because my playoff outlook just got a whole lot worse.
 

WaterBomb

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Fun stuff to lose your RB1 (Ingram) without warning right before the fantasy playoffs. Hopefully the Jags coaching staff have seen the light and give Yeldon all the goal line carries because my playoff outlook just got a whole lot worse.
Same thing happened to me. A month ago I wouldn't have worried because I have Blount, Rawls and Woodhead on my roster. However now, given that Blount and Woodhead have done precisely dick lately, I'm probably screwed. I've already lost Edelman and Dez so this is the final nail in the coffin. Oh well, maybe next year...
 
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