Implemented Keldeo in ORAS Monotype

DugZa · Sep 3, 2023

ORAS Monotype has been a controversial tier for a significantly long period of time within the Monotype community. With MPL just recently concluding, a survey was conducted to gather the opinion of the player base regarding the state of the tier. Of the Pokemon brought up, Keldeo drew the most attention with close to 70% of the survey takers supporting some form of tiering action on the Pokemon. With the survey results and the general sentiment from the community regarding Keldeo in mind, we believe there is sufficient support to warrant tiering action.

Choice Specs variants served as the more popular Keldeo set for most of the tier's lifespan; this at least forced the Keldeo to predict accurately in some matchups and gave the opponent some leeway to capitalize on. However, with Calm Mind sets gaining more and more traction in recent times, Keldeo's presence as an unhealthy threat has been more apparent. With little to no need to make predictions and its ability to easily setup Calm Mind and Substitute on forced switches made it far too threatening for most types, singlehandedly invalidating types like Dark while maintaining a significant building strain for Ground and Steel teams.

Scald is an exceptionally spammable move and the 12% burn makes it far too rewarding. Most would-be checks like AV Tornadus-T, Slowbro and Latios are heavily crippled by burn while others like Ferrothorn and Kyurem-B are comfortably dealt with by Secret Sword. Moreover, Keldeo's ability to run Icy Wind or different Hidden Power types like Bug, Ghost or Grass on both Calm Mind and Choice Specs sets also allow it to better deal with its natural resists and switch-ins like Dragonite, Celebi, Jellicent, Gastrodon and the Lati twins; it is also nigh-impossible to make a set prediction based off the rest of the team and thus a wrong first-time switch-in could potentially even lose the game then and there. Keldeo also outspeeds the vast majority of the tier bar a select few Pokemon making revenge killing Keldeo a challenge for many teams. Keldeo is also set apart from other offensive Water-types like Starmie and Volcanion with its resistance to Stealth Rock making wearing it down overtime a challenge which in turn allows it to switch-in far too many times in a game with very little risk.

In conclusion, taking its high Speed tier, 129 base Special Attack and both sets into account, there are very few viable types with long-term switch-ins to Keldeo and thus we ultimately decided to opt for this suspect.

Please keep all discussion in this thread limited to only if Keldeo is broken or not in ORAS Monotype. We urge everyone to voice out their thoughts even if you aren't a qualified voter. For clarity, the criteria for team tours were 3+ games played including at least one win and semifinalists from the recent ORAS Cup were included in the voter list. The list of voters is as follows;

MPL IX Players (12): Ashbala, Dj Breloominati♬, DugZa, fade, Feliburn, Jojo8868, juleocesar, SuperEpicAmpharos, Splash, Star, Toadow, Trouser Snakes
MPL VIII Players (8): Cousiin, Dieu Amphibien, Kaguya Lys, maroon, S1nn0hC0nfirm3d, TheWyvernKing, Toadow, Typhlosion48
MPL VII Players (12): Cell, Chaitanya, fade, Finchinator, Floss, Indigo Plateau, lax, maroon, mushamu, S1nn0hC0nfirm3d, Star, taide
MWC II Players (8): Bitana, Cell, Isza, juleocesar, Quaze, Scholar, Splash, taide
ORAS Cup (6): Attribute, imperialorder241, Ina fable, juleocesar, kythr, Starfox.

The thread will remain open for approximately two weeks; expect voting to go up on Monday, 18th of September.

Zap · Sep 4, 2023

Just would like to put some information out there.
Below you will find ORAS replays from MPL where a water team was brought.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-699374 water vs elec , keldeo did nothing but expected.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen6monotype-1896415072 water vs water, no keldeo in sight.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-702730 water vs psy, where keldeo proved to be troublesome, not because of its stabs but because of the niche hp bug. Water ends up losing.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-703458 water vs psy, no keldeo.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-706017 water vs elec, keldeo wasnt brought out, mega gyara won.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707009 water vs psy, keldeo used as sack.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707399 water vs normal, keldeo did actually sweep the team. Granted the end game was weird. But I don't think its crazy to expect keldeo to be your wincon in that mu.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-709459 grass vs water. lol

With all the times water was brought, keldeo exhibited being useful in exactly 2 of the games. And one of them was because it brought hp bug vs a psychic team. Even then, it did not exhibit anything extraordinary to which I would think would warrant banning it. Please take a look at the replays yourselves to find any compelling evidence to prove otherwise. With a 44% winrate for water, I don't know if using this mpl as a showcase to show that it isn't balanced is the way to go.

With that being said, if you want to make the argument that it's too restrictive in the builder and want to delve deeper into that conversation of theorymonning, sure, but do take all information available at hand before making your decision.

TheWyvernKing · Sep 4, 2023

Zap said:
Just would like to put some information out there.
Below you will find ORAS replays from MPL where a water team was brought.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-699374 water vs elec , keldeo did nothing but expected.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen6monotype-1896415072 water vs water, no keldeo in sight.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-702730 water vs psy, where keldeo proved to be troublesome, not because of its stabs but because of the niche hp bug. Water ends up losing.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-703458 water vs psy, no keldeo.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-706017 water vs elec, keldeo wasnt brought out, mega gyara won.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707009 water vs psy, keldeo used as sack.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707399 water vs normal, keldeo did actually sweep the team. Granted the end game was weird. But I don't think its crazy to expect keldeo to be your wincon in that mu.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-709459 grass vs water. lol

With all the times water was brought, keldeo exhibited being useful in exactly 2 of the games. And one of them was because it brought hp bug vs a psychic team. Even then, it did not exhibit anything extraordinary to which I would think would warrant banning it. Please take a look at the replays yourselves to find any compelling evidence to prove otherwise. With a 44% winrate for water, I don't know if using this mpl as a showcase to show that it isn't balanced is the way to go.

With that being said, if you want to make the argument that it's too restrictive in the builder and want to delve deeper into that conversation of theorymonning, sure, but do take all information available at hand before making your decision.

You're right that Keldeo didn't have an anime moment this mpl, but every matchup you just listed is either a disadvantage for water, a mirror, or psy. The meta for gen 6 revolves around preparing for Water, Flying, and Psy, and the reasoning for a ban comes from the limitations Keldeo puts on the tier entirely by itself - something that wouldn't be represented by an MPL usage stat.

I personally was very on the fence at first - I'm the one "No Opinion" vote in that survey - but looking back on it I've definitely shifted in favor of a ban vote. I attribute a big problem with why ORAS is so top heavy to types, which would otherwise be solid picks, being unnecessarily constrained by a single pokemon. Keldeo seems like a huge perpetrator of this issue to me. Dark has an extremely solid matchup vs. both Psychic and Flying, but sees almost no usage whatsoever in these big tours, entirely because of the lack of counterplay there is to Keldeo. Steel, in a similar boat, also has a pretty solid Psychic matchup, and though it finds itself a bit easier to chose as a pick than Dark, still faces incredible constraints because of Keldeo.

When I see people vote for a Keldeo suspect, it's not because the pokemon was a dominating force in a meta where everyone is prepping water, but rather the fact that so many otherwise incredible types are seriously held back in the builder (and tour usage) by it's existence. To me it's a discussion of, does banning Keldeo create a healthier metagame? I think yes.

fade · Sep 5, 2023

Proxy posting for cell

Zap said:
Just would like to put some information out there.
Below you will find ORAS replays from MPL where a water team was brought.

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-699374 water vs elec , keldeo did nothing but expected.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen6monotype-1896415072 water vs water, no keldeo in sight.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-702730 water vs psy, where keldeo proved to be troublesome, not because of its stabs but because of the niche hp bug. Water ends up losing.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-703458 water vs psy, no keldeo.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-706017 water vs elec, keldeo wasnt brought out, mega gyara won.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707009 water vs psy, keldeo used as sack.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-707399 water vs normal, keldeo did actually sweep the team. Granted the end game was weird. But I don't think its crazy to expect keldeo to be your wincon in that mu.
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-gen6monotype-709459 grass vs water. lol

With all the times water was brought, keldeo exhibited being useful in exactly 2 of the games. And one of them was because it brought hp bug vs a psychic team. Even then, it did not exhibit anything extraordinary to which I would think would warrant banning it. Please take a look at the replays yourselves to find any compelling evidence to prove otherwise. With a 44% winrate for water, I don't know if using this mpl as a showcase to show that it isn't balanced is the way to go.

With that being said, if you want to make the argument that it's too restrictive in the builder and want to delve deeper into that conversation of theorymonning, sure, but do take all information available at hand before making your decision.

ORAS player pool and available support has gotten substantially worse over time, so replays are to be taken with a grain of salt. Most of the replays showcase substantial misplaying, nonsense teams, or Keldeo simply running into a match-up where it isn't meant (or needed as a result of its partners) to do much.

Star vs Tier (Water vs Elec): Star brought a very slow Water balance and ran into TWave + GKnot Thundurus. This match-up shouldn't be winnable for the Water user regardless of Keldeo, so it doesn't prove anything either way.
Toadow vs Tier (Water vs Water): Toadow self sabotaged by dropping Keldeo for a TSpike-less Tentacruel. Not much else to say.
Ashbala vs Spitfire (Water vs Psy): Spitfire played safe in a slightly positive match-up, while Ashbala made some misplays early-game and failed to make up for it. Leading Keldeo doesn't accomplish anything against Psychic, and it lost him a lot of momentum in a match-up that usually turns into a sac war versus Celebi and Mega Gallade. CM Lefties on Celebi isn't really a thing, and the HP Bug Keldeo (common coverage on Specs) successfully forced it out. Trading rocks at the start and setting rain earlier would've likely made a huge difference in this game.
Cell vs Star (Psy vs Water): Stars team was mostly fine in this game. Keldeo struggles to fit on Water stall, and it isn't really needed on the archetype.
Spitfire vs SEA (Water vs Elec): Keldeo still isn't expected to do much versus Electric, and it doesn't need to this time since it's on a rain team with EQ Mega Gyara. SEA most likely won if the Zapdos wasn't slower than -1 Starmie (it really should be faster on a webs team...), although they still had a lot of opportunities to get in a better spot by either playing more optimally with Galv or doing more to prevent the Mega Gyara from setting up for free.
Splash vs Coo (Psy vs Water): The Scald damage roll on Celebi leads me to believe the Keldeo is SubCM, which is useless here. Splash won this if he chose to set rocks with Jirachi at any time to wear down the two rocks-weak Celebi answers on a team with no removal.
Feli vs Wyv (Normal vs Water): I'd say this match-up favors the Normal user by a good amount. Heliolisk, Cinccino, and Mega Lopunny are all massive threats, which probably won if they were played a bit better. Nonetheless, Keldeo served its purpose as Water's long term win condition against Normal. Feliburn's Normal team was simply more prepped for it than the usual build.

In summary, people made a lot of poor Water teams and played not so great. Keldeo doesn't necessarily need to do much against Psychic and Electric teams. Versus Psychic, the Specs set can force out Celebi and potentially pick up kills mid-late game if it has rain support for a boosted Hydro Pump. As for the Electric match-up, Water should only be trying to win that with rain builds.

Zap · Sep 5, 2023

TheWyvernKing said:
You're right that Keldeo didn't have an anime moment this mpl, but every matchup you just listed is either a disadvantage for water, a mirror, or psy. The meta for gen 6 revolves around preparing for Water, Flying, and Psy, and the reasoning for a ban comes from the limitations Keldeo puts on the tier entirely by itself - something that wouldn't be represented by an MPL usage stat.

I personally was very on the fence at first - I'm the one "No Opinion" vote in that survey - but looking back on it I've definitely shifted in favor of a ban vote. I attribute a big problem with why ORAS is so top heavy to types, which would otherwise be solid picks, being unnecessarily constrained by a single pokemon. Keldeo seems like a huge perpetrator of this issue to me. Dark has an extremely solid matchup vs. both Psychic and Flying, but sees almost no usage whatsoever in these big tours, entirely because of the lack of counterplay there is to Keldeo. Steel, in a similar boat, also has a pretty solid Psychic matchup, and though it finds itself a bit easier to chose as a pick than Dark, still faces incredible constraints because of Keldeo.

When I see people vote for a Keldeo suspect, it's not because the pokemon was a dominating force in a meta where everyone is prepping water, but rather the fact that so many otherwise incredible types are seriously held back in the builder (and tour usage) by it's existence. To me it's a discussion of, does banning Keldeo create a healthier metagame? I think yes.

Yeah thats an argument to be made for sure, I just don't see it as outright broken, and wanted to make sure that decisions get made with relevant information at hand, as banning a mon in an old metagame should be taken quite seriously. As you may recall, people were begging for multiple bans, and with just one small ban of Deo-S it made a huge impact on the metagame.

fade said:
Proxy posting for cell

ORAS player pool and available support has gotten substantially worse over time, so replays are to be taken with a grain of salt. Most of the replays showcase substantial misplaying, nonsense teams, or Keldeo simply running into a match-up where it isn't meant (or needed as a result of its partners) to do much.

Star vs Tier (Water vs Elec): Star brought a very slow Water balance and ran into TWave + GKnot Thundurus. This match-up shouldn't be winnable for the Water user regardless of Keldeo, so it doesn't prove anything either way.
Toadow vs Tier (Water vs Water): Toadow self sabotaged by dropping Keldeo for a TSpike-less Tentacruel. Not much else to say.
Ashbala vs Spitfire (Water vs Psy): Spitfire played safe in a slightly positive match-up, while Ashbala made some misplays early-game and failed to make up for it. Leading Keldeo doesn't accomplish anything against Psychic, and it lost him a lot of momentum in a match-up that usually turns into a sac war versus Celebi and Mega Gallade. CM Lefties on Celebi isn't really a thing, and the HP Bug Keldeo (common coverage on Specs) successfully forced it out. Trading rocks at the start and setting rain earlier would've likely made a huge difference in this game.
Cell vs Star (Psy vs Water): Stars team was mostly fine in this game. Keldeo struggles to fit on Water stall, and it isn't really needed on the archetype.
Spitfire vs SEA (Water vs Elec): Keldeo still isn't expected to do much versus Electric, and it doesn't need to this time since it's on a rain team with EQ Mega Gyara. SEA most likely won if the Zapdos wasn't slower than -1 Starmie (it really should be faster on a webs team...), although they still had a lot of opportunities to get in a better spot by either playing more optimally with Galv or doing more to prevent the Mega Gyara from setting up for free.
Splash vs Coo (Psy vs Water): The Scald damage roll on Celebi leads me to believe the Keldeo is SubCM, which is useless here. Splash won this if he chose to set rocks with Jirachi at any time to wear down the two rocks-weak Celebi answers on a team with no removal.
Feli vs Wyv (Normal vs Water): I'd say this match-up favors the Normal user by a good amount. Heliolisk, Cinccino, and Mega Lopunny are all massive threats, which probably won if they were played a bit better. Nonetheless, Keldeo served its purpose as Water's long term win condition against Normal. Feliburn's Normal team was simply more prepped for it than the usual build.

In summary, people made a lot of poor Water teams and played not so great. Keldeo doesn't necessarily need to do much against Psychic and Electric teams. Versus Psychic, the Specs set can force out Celebi and potentially pick up kills mid-late game if it has rain support for a boosted Hydro Pump. As for the Electric match-up, Water should only be trying to win that with rain builds.

Respectfully nothing you said was of value. Support or not, that is what the ORAS playerbase will likely be in the future, as the metagame will have less and less support as time goes on. Same for replay analysis its just an observation, yes ofcourse keldeo doesnt do well vs psy and elec

Trouser Snakes · Sep 6, 2023

A lot of my same feelings are already being said here so my message will be short, I agree with Wyv in, it not feeling healthy for a single mon to be able to strangle out 2 of the better types in the metagame by just the threat of it existing. My entire thought process with the keldeo I brought was "I can afford to have rocks go up and play with the chip for the cost of beating 2 types". This I feel is root of the problem with keldeo and some of the issue with how oras feels. I think with a move the metagame can open up more and feel more alive.

Elliot · Sep 12, 2023

Proxy post on behalf of DoW

Zap said:
Respectfully nothing you said was of value. Support or not, that is what the ORAS playerbase will likely be in the future, as the metagame will have less and less support as time goes on. Same for replay analysis its just an observation, yes ofcourse keldeo doesnt do well vs psy and elec

Regardless of how good the players are, the purpose of tiering is to create a meta that's good at high-level play.

I think Keldeo is a good first target for a ban if we want to create a healthier meta for ORAS Monotype. However, my main concern is that I don't believe water is the only centralising type in the meta, and therefore that banning Keldeo may lead to a slightly more balanced meta, but it still wouldn't be particularly balanced.

I think if there's appetite for changing the meta significantly, then by banning Keldeo followed by other key pokemon - I'm not sure which ones in particular, but maybe Landorus would be one I'd consider - the meta could become much more balanced and varied.

But given that the playerbase is diminishing and not practicing the meta a lot, it would take a long time for this meta to settle at all, and I'm not convinced that would leave the meta in a better place for players - especially if there was just one big Keldeo ban that had all the impact of shaking up the meta without actually leaving it in a particularly stable place.

juleocesar · Sep 14, 2023

I'll leave my two cents based on what I have witnessed in those competitions and the replays some of you have mentioned above. I don't think water stall should be accounted in this analysis because stall does not have the obligation to run keldeo nor it is an indication of Keldeo being broken / centralizing or not. As for the Electric spam in the recent competitions (ORAS cup and more importantly the most recent edition of MPL), rather than taking the perspective that Water / Keldeo hasn't done that much in those games I would look at the explanation as for why electric is being used a lot.

Historically speaking Electric has never been a great type in ORAS, and one of the reasons for this is being invalidated completely by types like Dragon, Normal, and to a certain extent Ground, which were until recently common types in the metagame. However, because of Water's dominance throughout the years I do think some players have adapted their playstyles to account balance / offensive Water builds, while still keeping a decent chance at beating types like Flying and Psychic. Certainly Keldeo's presence has scared away most of the Electric team nemesis (+ keldeo teams losing to electric), which therefore displays a heavy impact on teambuilding. While some believe this is unrelated, I can assure myself and most of the ORAS builders have, in nearly every occasion, accounted for Keldeo on teambuilding. The arguments that justify that decision were pointed out in the other thread (Revisiting ORAS Monotype).

If we take a look at MPL stats, Water displayed a 44% winrate in ORAS, which isn't bad for a type that was held accountable by nearly every player in the tournament (and was still the #2 most used type). Out of 9 games, it has won 4 (against Normal, Psychic, Electric and Water), none of which are supposed to give Water an autowin in paper. However, in almost every of those 9 games there was at least an answer intended to play against Keldeo in some regard. Offensive / bulky Azumarill in balance water isn't a common choice but it was still used in this game. In Psychic we see Celebi (a common answer to Keldeo + Mega-Gyarados) being used 6 times out of 10, which is pretty high for a non-mandatory Pokemon in Psychic teams. Normal featured Heliolisk 100% of the times it was used. And the list goes on for several other types. While it is important to look at Keldeo's impact in those games, it is also important to see what kind of preparation players are bringing to their games, because that also shows how impactful a Pokemon is.

In short: I don't think Keldeo is outright broken on its own but it does have a heavy impact on builder decisions. It restricts many team composition possibilities as some people have mentioned it in here, and it would be a healthy decision to remove it from the metagame. While it is interesting to see more electric / azu water / celebi psychic in the meta, it's somewhat compromising for ORAS monotype that players have to worry about Water builds every time, to the point of resorting to mid / low tier types more than they should have. It makes the metagame more "flippy / rock paper and scissors" in the sense you can get super good matchups or get a straight unfortunate matchup all because you were worried so much about Keldeo builds. Regardless of the action taken, teambuilding is an important aspect of metagame development and having it improved can certainly contribute for ORAS monotype progress, and I believe removing Keldeo can push us in that direction.

Floss · Sep 17, 2023

The vote is up, more details can be found on the thread.

https://www.smogon.com/forums/threads/oras-monotype-keldeo.3728052/

Implemented Keldeo in ORAS Monotype

DugZa

Carpe Diem

Zap

TheWyvernKing

fade

pistol pete

Zap

Trouser Snakes

Elliot

juleocesar

Floss

never forgotten

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