“LeBron is like a coach.” – Tyronn Lue
“When in doubt, shoot it.” – J.R. Smith
“People don't understand that Draymond low key trying out for major league soccer and Adam's training to switch to UFC. They helping each other out” – IamEggFu
“The Warriors were down 3-1 and they turned it around and I think that that’s what we’re going to do, too." – Bernie Sanders
"Kevin durant is fighting through the curse this is a beautiful thing to See" - Lil' B
We now enter yet another rematch of two teams in the finals. The only difference between this year and last would be experience, and two star players on Cleveland’s side.
There’s not much to say this year, so I’m going to keep this short and sweet. It’s kinda hard to predict “rematch” type of series. An injury there, a lucky bounce there, A Lil' B curse there... or an unpredictable chess move there by the coach can easily swing this series in either team’s favor. All I can do is focus on the barometers for both teams.
Golden State’s line-up of death and Kevin Love
Are pretty much the question on everybody’s mind. Oklahoma City pretty much laid out the blueprint in how to defeat Golden State, but that doesn’t mean any team can just implement it and succeed. Not many teams have the same athleticism and length as Oklahoma City dpes. If Cleveland can get Golden State to play outside their style, they will win this series. It’s certainly do-able. They got the rebounding edge to do it (although they’re not as good at rebounding as Oklahoma City).
But, does that answer involve Love? As bad as he is defensively, I’m not so sure. I suppose what is likely to happen here is that LeBron is on Draymond, and Love is on somebody that’s not too dangerous like Barnes. It’s a risk, but having to deal with Curry/Green screen-and-rolls is an even bigger risk.
Love’s effectiveness in this series will be put under a microscope considering he was missing last year thus making him the biggest X-Factor in the series. He has a large share of Cleveland’s most-used line-ups up to this point in the playoffs, so how well Golden State attacks him will decide how long Cleveland can actually stay in this series, because we know without Love, they’re probably finished. There was plenty of talk last year too about how Cleveland missed a player who could both space the floor and beat Golden State on the glass. We will certainly see whether he’s a curse or a blessing this time around.
Oh, but what about Frye? He’s shooting roughly 60% from downtown while being involved in Cleveland’s equally dangerous small offensive line-up. My only concern is that they have to keep the battle of the boards alive. Without Thompson, only LeBron is really expected to grab the boards. As far as which small line-up is expected to shoot better… On paper, that’s easily Cleveland, but don’t let those numbers fool you considering they’ve faced defensively inferior teams. My gut would easily say Golden State. Versatility also goes to Golden State, but LeBron James in space has been one of the most dangerous things we’ve seen since Miami earlier in the decade.
It’ll be interesting to see both of their deadliest line-ups go toe-to-toe and if Cleveland decides, have Love out there major minutes.
Kyrie Irving’s second shot
Will be an additional welcome to the line-up after LeBron’s work last year. I really don’t know what to expect. Last year, I was all down on his defense, but his only show in game 1 was actually a respectable performance against Curry. Admittedly, it’s still a breath of fresh air to guard Irving as opposed to Westbrook, but he’s still a premiere guard. Irving/Love will really, really have to be on their guard this series. I do not doubt his defense once again; I’m simply stating what’s required. We don’t truly know what would have resulted if Irving was never injured. Maybe Golden State would have cruised? Maybe Cleveland would have cruised? Irving is by no means a lockdown defender, so I’m more willing to believe Curry would have actually had an easier time against him versus Dellavedova or Shumpert over the course of a series. Some guys out there are arguing the absence of Irving was actually beneficial last year.
Boards and pace
Will be the same barometers used last year. Getting more possessions than Golden State is tantamount to beating them as shown by Oklahoma City. While Lue has stated time and time again that he wants to increase the “pace” of his team, they actually haven’t. They do not want to in this series, too. You simply will not beat Golden State possession-for-possession. They are too offensively talented.
Cleveland is offensively talented too, but much of their recent success is from efficient three-point shots; not necessarily increased possessions. Golden State’s defense is too good to have Cleveland shoot that well over the course of seven games. Cleveland is actually at their best taking their time, not turning the ball over, and executing better than you. That is a game they can beat Golden State in, and it will heavily involve excellent rebounding.
Basically, the winner of any of these games… will be the team whose style is prominent: Golden State’s freestyling offense or Cleveland’s halfcourt execution.
Intangibles
Aren’t usually a thing I reference but in the case of a finals rematch, I have to. Both teams are very familiar with each other, and one team is coming off of a huge momentum swing after being sucker punched. The other team has somewhat cruised and never really had to seriously adjust their strategy much. Rest versus rust is a lame debate but I also like to think the teams most likely to surprise their opponent early on are usually the ones who’ve already been tested beforehand. Golden State certainly has the mental advantage coming into this but both teams are so familiar with each other at this point that it may be moot. With the same roster and line-ups, continuity does help in the sense that you already know what’s going to work as a coach or a player; rematches have always essentially came down to who can get the surprises first. Home court advantage and continuity can’t hurt, at least.
Overall
We simply have to ask… which players are more likely to underperform compared to last year? Overperform compared to last year? Has Cleveland learned something new with Frye and Love? Has Golden State learned anything new over the course of their 73-win season?
Eh, near impossible questions to answer. I have a slight leaning towards Golden State. Not because I think they’re the better team but they have the leverage. The league overall has yet to adapt to their style of play, and right now, they are the “problem”. The team that will beat them will be called the “solution”. When you’re the team on the side of solution searching, you are automatically the underdog to me.
Because right now at this moment, Cleveland does not know 100% for a fact what will work against this team. There is no team in the NBA at this current moment that can play Golden State’s style and beat them. You can only force them out of their style. With a roster that is mostly the same as last year’s with only a slight change of philosophy… Cleveland runs a much higher risk being in the “not knowing” state of a match-up than Golden State.
Golden State wins if
We’ve seen it all before. Cleveland’s turning the ball, Green is doing a heck of a job on LeBron, Frye, and maybe even Love too. Curry is somewhat “freed” up being guarded by Irving and trying to put Shumpert on him, Thompson is an even bigger nightmare for the guy. LeBron can’t make an outside shot the save his life this year and rebounding has been roughly equal across both teams.
Cleveland wins if
The game is controlled, and the boards are collected. Cleveland is likely shooting lights out. J.R. Smith maybe breaks a shooting record. Frye becomes the most important one-dimensional player in history and Love is finally redeemed.
Golden State in six.