"Patterns" in Pokémon generations

[Codraroll]

Inspired by recent discussion in the Scarlet & Violet thread and this comic from XKCD:

Big image

In short, humans are really good at deducing patterns in data and using them to make predictions. In most datasets, there will always be pattern-like trends that at first seem to be immutable rules, until some random variation breaks it, because it was never a rule to begin with. Just randomness.

And of course, Pokémon is no exception. Or rather, it's pretty much the poster child of this phenomenon. Almost since the beginning, fans have spotted "rules" Game Freak seemingly adheres to when making their games, and used them to make predictions for the upcoming games. Sometimes the pattern holds, sometimes it fails. This thread is dedicated to spotting them. We can count patterns that seemed solid until they were broken, and patterns that still hold true.

I don't think we can consider something a pattern until it has been followed thrice in a row without any deviation.
Let's also avoid negative patterns, as in "Until Gen ___ introduced X, X didn't exist".

So I'll start the list of broken rules from Gen IV onward:

Until Gen IV ...

• Cross-generation evolution only adds one member to an evolutionary family.
• The legendary trio present in each generation are always of different types.

Until Gen V ...

• The Grass-type starter is always the first Pokémon in the regional Pokédex.
• The final evolution of the Water starter is always bipedal.
• There will be a single "special version" of the base games released at a later date, combining (in theory) the best of both versions and a little more.

Until Gen VI ...

• Every generation adds a Water/Flying Pokémon.
• Every generation adds a Pokémon based on a cat (counting Espeon for Gen II).
• Every even-numbered generation adds a pair of new Eeveelutions.
• Each generation addds more Legendary Pokémon than the last.
• The regional bird is always Normal/Flying.
• Flying is always a secondary typing.
• New moves are never introduced mid-generation, as this would break compatibility between the new game and the base games.
• Abilities are set in stone, and don't change for any Pokémon between generations.
• After the Gen II stat rework, the base stats of each Pokémon are set in stone.
• A clearly discernible trio of legendary Pokémon (not box mascots) are always present.
• The base games of the generation will get one or more follow-up games set in the same region.
• Mythical Pokémon are only ever distributed in time-limited events or similar shenanigans involving spin-off Pokémon games.

Until Gen VII ...

• A defining feature of legendary Pokémon is that they never evolve.
• If a starter Pokémon has a dual typing, it will be retained for the entire evolution line.
• All Pokémon planned to be released throughout the generation are stored in the files of the base games, to ensure full compatibility.

Until Gen VIII ...

• Every even-numbered generation adds a new Eeveelution.
• Every even-numbered generation adds cross-generation evolutions (debatable with PLA, though).
• Even-numbered generations add fewer Pokémon than the generation before them.
• Although it may evolve into a different typing, the regional bird always starts out as a Normal/Flying type.

For now ...

• Every odd-numbered generation adds a new mushroom Pokémon.
• Cross-generation evolutions are only added in even-numbered generations (exceptions exist for pre-evolutions, however).

These are the ones I was able to spot. Doubtlessly, there are many others. Have you found any, and do they still hold up?

 

[Divine Retribution]

Pokemon fans and confirmation bias, name a more iconic duo.

And you aren't allowed to say Pokemon fans and sexualizing underage anime characters.

 

[Dusk Mage Necrozma]

Okay, in defense of my post that likely is being referred to here

Actually, there’s reason to suspect that we’ll get a pair of 3rd versions:

BW: BW2
XY: no extra versions
SM: USM
SS: no extra versions
SV: ???

Now that DLC is in the picture I have no idea how that would work but it’s something to think about.

stuff like game releases are a lot more stable than all the “mushroom Pokemon in odd-numbered gens” stuff.

 

[Codraroll]

Okay, in defense of my post that likely is being referred to here

stuff like game releases are a lot more stable than all the “mushroom Pokemon in odd-numbered gens” stuff.

Depends. You had to start counting at a precise point in the timeline to make the pattern appear, and the "no extra versions" thing has only happened twice in total. The mushroom thing has been there since the first generation.

 

[Dusk Mage Necrozma]

Depends. You had to start counting at a precise point in the timeline to make the pattern appear, and the "no extra versions" thing has only happened twice in total. The mushroom thing has been there since the first generation.

Well, it’s more like they changed their release strategy in BW and continued through SS with it.

Was more of a “here’s a thing to think about” post anyway, I believe and hope that they’ll shift fully to DLC going forward.

 

[QuentinQuonce]

Gen V's region - USA
Gen VI's region - Europe
Gen VII's region - USA
Gen VIII's region - Europe

Gen IX's region - Europe

Oh.

EDIT: Also, something I've found funny for a while - despite the expected formula for each being two games followed by (an) upper version/s, Gen II and Gen V are actually the only ones that strictly conform to that model. All other generations have additional content.

• Gen I has four games (Yellow counts as a partial remake)
• Gen III has Ruby/Sapphire, then FRLG, then Emerald
• Gen IV has DP, then Platinum, then HGSS
• Gen VI has XY and ORAS.
• Gen VII has SM, then USUM, then LGPE
• Gen VIII has SwSh, then the DLC, then L:A, then BSDP

 

[Bull Of Heaven]

Wow, I never noticed the Water/Flying "pattern". That one's cool.

Gen V's region - USA
Gen VI's region - Europe
Gen VII's region - USA
Gen VIII's region - Europe

Gen IX's region - Europe

Oh.

This reminds me that "the new main region is always based on part of Japan" is an easy one for the Gen V list.

 

[QuentinQuonce]

Wow, I never noticed the Water/Flying "pattern". That one's cool.



This reminds me that "the new main region is always based on part of Japan" is an easy one for the Gen V list.

Funnily enough I actually predicted the Gen V games being called Black and White and remember getting shot down hard by people on Bulbagarden Forums before the games were announced. Because, y'know, don't be stupid, Game Freak aren't going to go back to naming games after colours. Nah. Definitely not.

 

[DrPumpkinz]

The Grass-type starter is always the first Pokémon in the regional Pokédex.

I mean, Snivy is still the first Pokemon in the Unova dex. It's just that Unova also has a zeroth Pokemon. And even if you want to call that pedantic, that it's never happened again makes it an outlier, not a pattern breaker.

Though Victini is related to an actual broken pattern, that being the mythical with straight 100s across the board. It was the last of its kind. (And Manaphy was the first time it wasn't Psychic).

 

[RocketSurgery]

I think I mentioned in another thread somewhere that I would love for gen 9 to not introduce any new mushroom mon to put that pattern to bed, but given that there is a truffle hunting pig mon I think this pattern will survive until at least gen 11. (Maybe GF can throw a wrench into it by introducing a mushroom mon in gen 10).

Other "patterns" that I don't think are patterns:

The regis represent historical eras. Until I see a developer interview that actually confirms this one, I find it at best plausible but by no means certain enough that it should be included as trivia on Bulbapedia. The pattern of course conveniently leaves out Regigigas, because why should the master of the quintet have to follow the pattern that the two newest additions to the family supposedly follow?

Two Pokemon from the previous gen are designed to hint at the legendaries for the next gen: The "pattern" that I've seen starts with gen 5 -> gen 6, (Sawsbuck -> Xern, Mandibuzz -> Yveltal), and then Pyroar -> Solgaleo, Noivern -> Lunala, and then Lycanroc forms -> Zacian & Zamazenta. This one is actually pretty annoying, because I saw it being discussed before the SV reveal, and people were actively looking for the mons in SwSh that might "hint" at the new legendaries. and so of course when Koraidon and Miraidon were revealed people were pointing at the Toxtricity forms and convinced this one is intentional. Even if this is not simply coincidental, no one seems to consider alternative possibilities, such as the legendaries being based on/inspired by designs that didn't make the cut in the previous gen, instead of the regular mons being planted as hints for the future.

A mythical hints at the next gen region: Similar to the above, but doesn't hold as much weight because it's such a stretch that I am not sure I even remember all the 'hints' correctly. Once again, it starts at gen 5, with Keldeo (& the muskideers) hinting at France-inspired Kalos, and then... I guess Hoopa's rings are supposed to hint at ultra wormholes and hence Alola or something, and then Magearna must hint at Galar, you see, because Magearna is made of gears and the industrial revolution happened in the UK and Motostoke has a big gear in it. And then Zarude hints at Paldea because... Iberia is tropical or something? Or <puts tinfoil hat on> there was another mythical planned that was a more direct hint but because of Covid it got cut but this pattern will totally pick back up with SV's mythical. /s
(Some people believe the new mons in PLA were designed as hints to SV, since the leaker said something to this affect, but it seems silly to take it literally and think that a company would make an entire game just to hint at their next game).

 

[Scorpio]

This reminds me that "the new main region is always based on part of Japan" is an easy one for the Gen V list.

Tohoku-inspired region when

 

[DreamPrince]

For Legendary Trios, some people speculate that the Creation Trios typings are a reference to the three states of matter: Dialga’s Steel typing references Solids, Palkia’s Water typing references Liquids, and Giratina’s Ghost typing are gases.

Since Zygarde has a cell motif going for it, some people speculate that Yveltal represents Veins while Xerneas represents skin or bones I think, can’t remember exactly.

Lastly, and not to jump on all the Gen 5 Pokémon being Gen 1 reboots, but the original Forces of Nature and Tao Trio have eerily a lot in common with the Legndary Birds. The Forces of Nature are not only all Flying type, but in Incarnate Form, their highest stat is 125, which is the same as the Legendary Birds; with two members of both trios have Sp. Atk has the highest stat. Zapdos and Thundurus not only share the same typing, but are also the second member of the trio. Lastly, Landorus and Gen 1 Moltres are the third members of the trio and have higher BSTs than the two.

As for the Tao Trio, both feature Ice, Electric, and Fire Pokémon that share a secondary type, Dragon and Flying respectively. Interestingly, the types of the Tao Trio are reversed in comparison to the Birds when it comes Pokédex Numbers: Reshiram is the Fire type who comes first in contrast to Moltres who comes to third, while Kyurem comes last in contrast to Articuno who comes first. Zekrom and Zapdos come second and are Electric type, and both are considered competitively the best in their trios at least for Smogon.

 

[Darth Jigglypuff]

Tohoku-inspired region when

Already exists in a rom hack.

 

[Esserise]

The regis represent historical eras. Until I see a developer interview that actually confirms this one, I find it at best plausible but by no means certain enough that it should be included as trivia on Bulbapedia. The pattern of course conveniently leaves out Regigigas, because why should the master of the quintet have to follow the pattern that the two newest additions to the family supposedly follow?

I’m not very keen on that theory myself, but to be fair, I have seen people try to fit Regigigas into the mold by saying it represents the era of Pangaea. I have a lot of issues with that notion as well, but, hey, it’s an attempt.

 

[QuentinQuonce]

Tohoku-inspired region when

There's a certain school of thought that Tohoku is Holon from the TCG.

 

[KalosianPorygon]

Pokemon fans and confirmation bias, name a more iconic duo.

And you aren't allowed to say Pokemon fans and sexualizing underage anime characters.

Pokémon fans and arguing. No-one hates Pokémon more than (former) Pokémon fans to my knowledge.

It's worth noting that a few patterns are born after the first few Generations. For example, the early Dark-type Pokémon appeared in Generation III.
Speaking of early Pokémon, both Generations II and III lack a new three-stage bird-like early Flying-type Pokémon. The Hoothoot line was found early, but only at night, whereas the Taillow line wasn't as recurring.

 

[Hugin]

I'm just pointing out, Fire-type starters are based on the Chinese Zodiac hasn't been broken until we see the final stage of Fuecoco.
All Water-type starters are based on air-breathing animals.
All Grass-type starters are based on scaled animals(reptiles and dinosaurs) was true until Kalos.
All fossils are part-rock was true until Galar found something better.

 

[Dusk Mage Necrozma]

I'm just pointing out, Fire-type starters are based on the Chinese Zodiac hasn't been broken until we see the final stage of Fuecoco.
All Water-type starters are based on air-breathing animals.

Isn’t the point of this thread that these kind of patterns aren’t reliable?

 

[QuentinQuonce]

I'm just pointing out, Fire-type starters are based on the Chinese Zodiac hasn't been broken until we see the final stage of Fuecoco.

Now you know as well as I do that Fuecoco's final evo being a fully-grown crocodile that'll be enough for people to argue that it's a dragon or a snake, thus maintaining the zodiac theory

EDIT: Duh, Charizard is the dragon already, my brain is dumb

 

[Hugin]

Isn’t the point of this thread that these kind of patterns aren’t reliable?

And of course, Pokémon is no exception. Or rather, it's pretty much the poster child of this phenomenon. Almost since the beginning, fans have spotted "rules" Game Freak seemingly adheres to when making their games, and used them to make predictions for the upcoming games. Sometimes the pattern holds, sometimes it fails. This thread is dedicated to spotting them. We can count patterns that seemed solid until they were broken, and patterns that still hold true.

The point of this thread is both broken patterns and patterns that stick around. And some things are people making the data fit, but I'm pretty sure others are actual creator decisions that may be altered or ignored under the right circumstances.

Notably, the part-rock Fossils I'm pretty sure was an actual design rule, with Galar being an exception. I fully expect that to return in all future generations. Water-type starters being air-breathers I'm pretty sure is a rule from the Anime staff that won't be broken. They want Ash to have all 3 starters and for them to be able to hang out with him anywhere, so that means no fish.

Oh, another one I think was an actual rule they eventually decided to scrap: No pure flying-type Pokemon. It's Normal/Flying if you can't think of anything else. They broke it once for Tornadus, a legendary wind spirit(fine) and then broke it again for Rookidee of all things. Honestly, every decision related to that is odd. Rookidee could have been Normal/Flying that changes like Fletchling. Or they could have made Toucannon the first non-legend Flying type. Instead they make it a basic mon that's going to change type on evolution.
And there's the "Everything is Primary Type/Flying" rule, which lasted until Gen 6, and still only had the one exception before Galar. Noibat/Noivern are Flying/Dragon to separate them from Dragonite/Salamence, Corviknight is Flying/Steel because Rookidee is pure flying and they don't want to change it's first type. And Cramorant is Flying/Water because...reasons? They left Oricorio Type/Flying in all of it's versions, despite that making no sense, but Cramorant gets to be Flying/Water. IDGI

 

[bwburke94]

Until Gen VIII:

• Every previously existing Pokémon and move will be coded into every game, even if inaccessible at launch.

 

[Ironmage]

They left Oricorio Type/Flying in all of it's versions, despite that making no sense,

Well, yes and no. Revelation Dance needed to be written to allow for non-Oricorio users (thanks to Sketch/Mirror Move/etc.). While internally all mons have two types (which would allow Revelation Dance to be coded referencing the second type), that info is deliberately hidden from players. Making Oricorio X/Flying allows for the move to reference the first type which is always displayed.

 

[Cuddly]

Until Gen IV ...

• Cross-generation evolution only adds one member to an evolutionary family.

The first point should be Gen 2 because of Umbreon and Espeon. Besides Eeveelutions and Regional Forms, there are no Cross-Gen evolutions introducing 2 new evolutions in the same Gen. However, Tyrogue and Budew were introduced the same Gen as Hitmontop and Roserade were introduce, which still means this pattern never existed (though I don’t blame people for making an exception for Eevee/Regionals and forgetting about Tyrogue/Budew existing).

 

[ScraftyIsTheBest]

Until Generation IV:
- The generation's pseudo-legendary will always be placed next to or among the generation's legendary Pokémon in the National Pokedex listing

Until Generation VI:
- The pseudo-legendary will always be dual-typed

 

[KalosianPorygon]

Before Generation V, all Professors were men.
Before Generation VI, you can't fight the Professor (the dummied-out Oak fight in Gen I does not count).
Before Generation VII, all Professors wore shirts underneath their lab coats.
Before Generation VIII, all Professors were named after trees and hotter than the previous ones (unless you include Sonia, in which case the streak continues).
Before Generation IX, all Professors were named after flora.