Scenario Poll

[Tomahawk]

I will regularly update this thread with a new scenario. What I want you to do is PM me what you would do as both player 1 and player 2 in the shown scenario. That way, we can find out what most players would do and what would be the best move to make for either player. Note that every detail Pokémon is known by every player.

Scenario Archive

Scenario 1

P1's Team:

Latios (M) @ Choice Specs
Trait: Levitate
EVs: 252 SAtk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Timid Nature (+Spd, -Atk)
- Draco Meteor
- Dragon Pulse
- Surf
- Psyshock

Magnezone @ Choice Scarf
Trait: Magnet Pull
EVs: 4 HP / 252 SAtk / 252 Spd
Timid Nature (+Spd, -Atk)
- Thunder
- Flash Cannon
- Hidden Power Fire
- Volt Switch

P2's Team:

Scizor (M) @ Choice Band
Trait: Technician
EVs: 248 HP / 252 Atk / 8 Spd
Adamant Nature (+Atk, -SAtk)
- U-turn
- Bullet Punch
- Superpower
- Quick Attack

Dugtrio (M) @ Choice Band
Trait: Arena Trap
EVs: 252 Atk / 32 Def / 224 Spd
Jolly Nature (+Spe, -SAtk)
- Earthquake
- Stone Edge
- Sucker Punch
- Shadow Claw

The current weather is rain. Stealth Rock is on the field of Player 1, and 3 layers of Spikes are on the field of Player 2. Latios is weakened to 60% health. Scizor is weakened to 80% health.

Player 1 has two viable options here: Surf and switching to Magnezone. Player 2 has two viable options here as well: Bullet Punch and U-turn. If Latios uses Surf while Scizor uses Bullet Punch, Latios will be KOed. Magnezone will then be able to take out, but lose to Dugtrio. If Latios uses Surf while Scizor uses U-turn, Scizor is KOed. Dugtrio will then have to lock himself into Shadow Claw / Sucker Punch / Stone Edge, which all does shitty damage to Magnezone, who can outdamage and defeat Dugtrio in that case. If Player 1 switches to Magnezone while Scizor uses Bullet Punch, Magnezone will be able to take out Scizor and Dugtrio would again have to lock himself into a move that can't take out either Magnezone or Latios. If Player 1 switches to Magnezone while Scizor U-turns to Dugtrio, Dugtrio can take out Magnezone and Scizor can take out Latios afterwards.

Player 1:
Surf: 33%
Switch to Magnezone: 67%

Player 2:
Bullet Punch: 25%
U-turn: 75%

So these are the chance of winning when selecting (factoring in the chance of winning when Bullet Punching Magnezone):

Player 1:
Surf: 75%
Switch to Magnezone: 22%

Player 2:
Bullet Punch: 42%
U-turn: 67%

Current Scenario

P1's Team:

Arcanine (M) @ Life Orb
Trait: Intimidate
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spd
Jolly Nature (+Spd, -SAtk)
- Flare Blitz
- Close Combat
- Wild Charge
- ExtremeSpeed

Heracross (M) @ Flame Orb
Trait: Guts
EVs: 16 HP / 240 Atk / 252 Spd
Jolly Nature (+Spd, -SAtk)
- Megahorn
- Close Combat
- Night Slash
- Facade

Jolteon (M) @ Life Orb
Trait: Volt Absorb
EVs: 252 SAtk / 4 SDef / 252 Spd
Timid Nature (+Spe, -Atk)
- Charge Beam
- Thunderbolt
- Hidden Power Ice
- Shadow Ball

P2's Team:

Ferrothorn (M) @ Shed Shell
Trait: Iron Barbs
EVs: 252 HP / 48 Def / 208 SDef
Relaxed Nature (+Def, -Spe)
- Spikes
- Leech Seed
- Gyro Ball
- Power Whip

Tyranitar (M) @ Choice Scarf
Trait: Sand Stream
EVs: 4 HP / 252 Atk / 252 Spd
Jolly Nature (+Spe, -SAtk)
- Stone Edge
- Crunch
- Pursuit
- Superpower

Jellicent (M) @ Leftovers
Trait: Water Absorb
EVs: 248 HP / 216 Def / 44 Spd
Bold Nature (+Def, -Atk)
- Surf
- Will-O-Wisp
- Recover
- Taunt

The current weather is sand. Stealth Rock is on the side of Player 1. Arcanine is at 75% after one round of Stealth Rock damage. Ferrothorn is not Intimidated. Megahorn is out of PP. Flame Orb on Heracross has already activated. Jolteon is weakened to 15%. Jellicent is weakened to 80%.

All relevant damage calculations are shown below.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Flare Blitz vs 252HP/48Def Ferrothorn (+Def): 178% - 211% (628 - 744 HP). Guaranteed OHKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Flare Blitz vs 4HP/0Def Tyranitar (Neutral): 30% - 35% (104 - 123 HP). Guaranteed 4HKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Flare Blitz vs 248HP/216Def Leftovers Water Absorb Jellicent (+Def): 26% - 31% (105 - 125 HP). Guaranteed 4HKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Close Combat vs 252HP/48Def Ferrothorn (+Def): 59% - 70% (210 - 248 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Close Combat vs 4HP/0Def Tyranitar (Neutral): 162% - 192% (556 - 660 HP). Guaranteed OHKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Wild Charge vs 252HP/48Def Ferrothorn (+Def): 11% - 13% (39 - 46 HP). Guaranteed 10HKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Wild Charge vs 4HP/0Def Tyranitar (Neutral): 30% - 36% (105 - 124 HP). Guaranteed 4HKO.
252Atk Life Orb Arcanine (Neutral) Wild Charge vs 248HP/216Def Leftovers Water Absorb Jellicent (+Def): 52% - 62% (212 - 252 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
240Atk +1 Guts Heracross (Neutral) Close Combat vs 252HP/48Def Ferrothorn (+Def): 111% - 131% (392 - 464 HP). Guaranteed OHKO.
240Atk +1 Guts Heracross (Neutral) Close Combat vs 4HP/0Def Tyranitar (Neutral): 306% - 361% (1048 - 1236 HP). Guaranteed OHKO.
240Atk +1 Guts Heracross (Neutral) Night Slash vs 252HP/48Def Ferrothorn (+Def): 10% - 12% (38 - 45 HP). Guaranteed 10HKO.
240Atk +1 Guts Heracross (Neutral) Night Slash vs 4HP/0Def Tyranitar (Neutral): 14% - 17% (51 - 60 HP). Guaranteed 7HKO.
240Atk +1 Guts Heracross (Neutral) Night Slash vs 248HP/216Def Leftovers Water Absorb Jellicent (+Def): 51% - 60% (206 - 244 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
252SpAtk Life Orb Jolteon (Neutral) Thunderbolt vs 252HP/208SpDef Ferrothorn (Neutral): 18% - 22% (66 - 78 HP). Guaranteed 6HKO.
252SpAtk Life Orb Jolteon (Neutral) Thunderbolt vs 4HP/0SpDef Tyranitar (Neutral): 52% - 61% (178 - 211 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
252SpAtk Life Orb Jolteon (Neutral) Thunderbolt vs 248HP/0SpDef Water Absorb Jellicent (Neutral): 85% - 101% (344 - 408 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO. 7% chance to OHKO.
252Atk Tyranitar (Neutral) Stone Edge vs 4HP/0Def Arcanine (Neutral): 125% - 147% (404 - 476 HP). Guaranteed OHKO.
252Atk Tyranitar (Neutral) Stone Edge vs 16HP/0Def Heracross (Neutral): 69% - 81% (211 - 250 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
0SpAtk Jellicent (Neutral) Surf vs 4HP/0SpDef Arcanine (Neutral): 67% - 78% (216 - 254 HP). Guaranteed 2HKO.
0SpAtk Jellicent (Neutral) Surf vs 16HP/0SpDef Heracross (Neutral): 30% - 36% (93 - 111 HP). Guaranteed 4HKO.

[Space reserved for more in-depth analysis.]

Options for P1: Flare Blitz, Close Combat and Wild Charge.
Options for P2: Spikes, switch to Tyranitar, switch to Jellicent.

Please PM your decisions for both Player 1 and Player 2 to Tomahawk9 before Tuesday 2 August, 12:00 GMT. Thanks!

 

[Stratos]

i don't see the point in this. There's no "better" option any way you slice it. if you do A and so does opponent, you win. If you do B and opponent does A, they win. If you do B and so does opponent, you win. If you do A and opponent does B, they win.

next time try and make one that's more than just glorified rock/paper/scissors

 

[Tomahawk]

Hm, this was just an example to get started, the following scenarios will be more complicated.

 

[DangerMouse]

At work so really can't put to much input right now but i really like this thread.

 

[BurningMan]

Stay in with Scizor to KO Latios. If Magnezone switches in it will have to KO you with HP Fire wich doesen't 2 HKOs Dugtrio, if you get lucky and get 1 crit on him and doesn't miss on Latios you won even though you have done the wrong decision (and if Latios doesn't switches you have won even without luck).

 

[PI-Dimension]

i don't see the point in this. There's no "better" option any way you slice it. if you do A and so does opponent, you win. If you do B and opponent does A, they win. If you do B and so does opponent, you win. If you do A and opponent does B, they win.

next time try and make one that's more than just glorified rock/paper/scissors

Dude that's the point of this - at first there may seem to be no "better option," but the statistical results will show the "better option"

 

[EpicTurtle]

Since there is SR up, switching into Magnezone will make you lose, because you will have to take 3 Bullet Punchs and 3 Sucker Punch (you have to use HP Fire as well). So P2 always wins if he/she just stays in and spams Bullet Punch.

Scizor@Choice Band (252 EVs, +Nature) Bullet Punch vs Magnezone@Choice Scarf (4/0 EVs, Neutral Nature): 12.7 ~ 14.8% (36 ~ 42 HP) (Rain)

Magnezone@Choice Scarf (252 EVs, +Nature) Hidden Power Fire vs Scizor@Choice Band (248/0 EVs, Neutral Nature): 59.4 ~ 71.1% (204 ~ 244 HP) (Rain) So Scizor gets 3 hits (a switch in one, take a hit and then get KOed)

13.75% average x 3

41.25% average

SR damage is 6.25%

Then Dugtrio comes in and

Dugtrio@Choice Band (252 EVs, Neutral Nature) Stone Edge vs Magnezone@Choice Scarf (4/0 EVs, Neutral Nature): 18.4 ~ 21.9% (52 ~ 62 HP) (Rain)

Average is 16.3 %.

Magnezone@Choice Scarf (252 EVs, Neutral Nature) Hidden Power Fire vs Dugtrio@Choice Band (0/0 EVs, Neutral Nature): 24.1 ~ 28.9% (51 ~ 61 HP) (Rain)

Average is 26.5 % so a 3HKO including Spikes.

So 41.25% + 6.25%% + (3) 18.4 ~ 21.9%

41.25% + 6.25% + 55.2% ~ 65.7%
=a kill

So you always win when using Bullet Punch.

Dugtrio@Choice Band (252 EVs, Neutral Nature) Stone Edge vs Latios (4/0 EVs, Neutral Nature): 47 ~ 55.6% (142 ~ 168 HP) (Rain)

Latios takes 12.5% from SR and is at 60% so its a KO and Dugtrio outspeeds.

The only problem is StoneMiss missing which you need it to hit 4 times.

So .8^4

so 40.96% chance of it working like that.

However if you include the 30% critical hit chance which could make it .8^3 (which is above 50% which means in most cases you will win)

The chances of of not getting a critical hit in 3 turns (because the 4th one doesn't matter)

is .7^3 or 34.3%.

100 - 34.3 = 65.7. So you have a 65.7% chance of winning in most cases.

@below: Dugtrio has Arena Trap.

 

[Woodchuck]

But if I'm facing a Dugtrio choice locked into Sucker Punch, and that's my opponent's only pokemon, then I can just switch back and forth to waste its PP. >.>
The best option is switching to Magnezone; if your opponent Superpowers (which most won't do) then you can just bring in Latios and spam surf and hope for the best :/
If your opponent uses U-turn, which is the "percentage move", he'll have to bring in Dugtrio which dies to Magnezone Flash Cannon, at which point you can bring Latios back in to take any move. The only moves that beat Latios are walled by Magnezone, so you have the game. Unless, of course, Scizor switches back in and U-turns again. But your opponent is relying on prediction at this point so it's a 50-50.

If your opponent Bullet Punches you win, as you can bring in Magnezone without fear, then HP Fire it to death. Then you can switch to Latios. If your opponent Stone Edges, Magnezone wins. If your opponent Sucker Punches, then switch back and forth until he is out of PP. If your opponent EQs, then he is an idiot. If your opponent Shadow Claws, Magnezone beats him.
Basically, there are five scenarios.
1. Scizor U-turns, it comes down to prediction. 50%
2. Scizor Bullet Punches, you win.
3. Scizor Quick Attacks, you lol and win.
4. Scizor Superpowers, you lose Magnezone then bring in Latios. You lose. :/
5. Scizor double switches to Dugtrio, you spam Flash Cannon and may or may not win.
You're still winning better than 50% of the time on average, so I think switching to Magnezone is the best choice for player 1.

 

[Stratos]

if you're facing a dugtrio you can't switch >.>

If your opponent U-turns on your switch he wins because dugtrio outspeeds CS fagnezone. He is then free to sack whichever pokemon he chooses because both can kill latios. Since this is a cleaner way to get the same result as superpower, this obsoletes the option of using Superpower.

Quick attack will do slightly more damage to fagnezone but fail to OHKO latios so it is also obsoleted by BP.

Switching gives you a 25% chance to win as Player 2. If Latios stays in, you lose. If latios also switches, you get your choice of move against magnezone after magnet pull doesn't let you leave. A new mind game approaches, except the options are now Superpower and U-turn for P2 and Switching and HP fire for P1, so it's always a worse option that U-turn or Bullet Punch.

So we're back to exactly what is stated in the OP, P2 can either U-turn or BP, and it's a blind game for them.

However, if Epic Turtle is correct, P1 has a guaranteed win.

There is one thing, though. Thunder would be an OHKO on Scizor, and if Sucker Punch fails when used on a non-effective move, which iirc it does, that means that the following scenario would happen:

P1 Switches to magnezone!
Scizor uses BP!

Scizor uses BP!
Magnezone uses Thunder!
Scizor Faints!

(Sucker Punch Stall)

Maggy wins!

EDIT: wait no, he could just use Shadow Claw. so yes, Spamming BP will always win, so long as you have decent damage rolls.

 

[moogleking]

^Latios has Levitate and, hence, CAN switch out of Arena Trap.

Magnezone is boned, though.

 

[Chameleon]

Since there is SR up, switching into Magnezone will make you lose, because you will have to take 3 Bullet Punchs and 3 Sucker Punch (you have to use HP Fire as well). So P2 always wins if he/she just stays in and spams Bullet Punch.

Not necessarily. Magnezone should spam Flash Cannon against Scizor if it is locked into Bullet Punch. Flash cannon will 4HKO Scizor and OHKO Dugtrio with Spikes, meaning that you only have to take 5 Bullet Punches and 1 Stone Edge, which will not usually KO with SR.
(5 x 13.85 average) + (20.2 average) + (6.25) = 95.7

So assuming no crits and average damage rolls, Player 1 will win if Magnezone is switched in and Scizor Bullet Punches. We can also say that Stone Edge having to hit twice (once on Magnezone, once on Latios) with its fail accuracy balances out the crit threat somewhat. Not to mention Magnezone can crit Scizor or lower its Special Defense.

 

[Stratos]

hm. So that means that actually the scenario in OP is still the exact same as it was previously.

furthermore this discussion is hella interesting.

 

[BurningMan]

The Latios/Magnezone user still has to pray for the mercy of the RNG even if he makes the "right" decision, because of crits. So Bullet Punching Latios is still Player 1s best decision.

 

[Stratos]

The Latios/Magnezone user still has to pray for the mercy of the RNG even if he makes the "right" decision, because of crits. So Bullet Punching Latios is still Player 1s best decision.

.9375^5= .724*.875= .63

crits only happen like one in three times for player one. yes, it is the best decision, but remember that maggy can crit AND get sdef drops, so the RNG should balance out.

 

[BurningMan]

The RNG could balance out, but it could also completly fuck you (and we all know how it loves to do that).
Player 2 either wins 100% or at least gets a small chance of winning regardless of the opponents moves, while player 1 will always need to be "lucky" to win.

 

[purple crobatchop]

P1 options: surf, switch
P2 options: BP, U-turn

IF P1 Surf AND P2 U-turn,
Scizor faints, Dugtrio out
P1 wins

IF P1 Surf AND P2 BP,
Latios faints, Magnezone out
Dugtrio is faster than Magnezone
P2 wins

IF P1 switch AND P2 U-turn,
P2 wins

IF P1 Switch and P2 BP,
P1 options: HP fire (2HKO), Flash Cannon (really?)
SR: 6.25%
HP fire: 2HKO
Flash cannon: 23.0-27.1% (3-4HKO)
3BP to Magnezone: 38.1 - 44.4%
4BP to Magnezone: 50.8 - 59.2%
5BP to Magnezone: 63.5 - 74.0%
Magnezone HP remaining: 34.55 - 42.95% or 19.75 - 30.25 % (usually higher due to sp.def drop)
Flash cannon to Dugtrio: minimum 83.9% (OHKO with 3 spikes)
stone edge to Magnezone: 18.4 - 22.0% (Almost but likely to miss the KO)
P1 wins

So the situation is actually a 50/50
I will PM my choice

credits to EpicTurtle and Slowpoke calculator

Edit: ninjask'd by Chameleon

 

[Tomahawk]

If Scizor uses Bullet Punch and Player 1 switches to Magnezone, ad Player 1 goes for Flash Cannon, the chances of Player 2 winning are:

1-((1-0.0625)^5) = the chance of P2 critting
0.8 = the chance of stone edge not missing
(1-0.0625)^3 = the chance of P1 not critting
(1-0.10)^3 = the chance of Flash Cannon not lowering SpD

all multiplied makes the chance of winning for P2 13.2535195%

By the way, people, keep voting as the number of votes PMed yet isn't good enough!

Also, the next scenario will involve an Arcanine ;)

 

[malomyotismon]

It would completly depend on the player I am facing and what they have done previously, then deciding what they are more likely to do.

 

[Yoshiken]

I have no input on the question, but I love the idea here. This topic's already really shown that there's only so much calculation you can do within a 5 minute time limit. ;)

 

[purple crobatchop]

I have no input on the question, but I love the idea here. This topic's already really shown that there's only so much calculation you can do within a 5 minute time limit. ;)

Yeah but often calcs are uneccessary
Also, to everyone, PLEASE PM YOUR DECISIONS TO OP

 

[Tomahawk]

I would appreciate it if some more people would vote!

 

[Tomahawk]

Okay, the results are in!

Player 1:
Surf: 33%
Switch to Magnezone: 67%

Player 2:
Bullet Punch: 25%
U-turn: 75%

So these are the chance of winning when selecting (factoring in the chance of winning when Bullet Punching Magnezone):

Player 1:
Surf: 75%
Switch to Magnezone: 22%

Player 2:
Bullet Punch: 42%
U-turn: 67%

Scenario 2 will be up as soon as possible, but there is a little flaw I still have to fix!

Edit: scenario 2 is up, though without an analysis. Expect the analysis in a few days though!

 

[Ada]

Not much of a scenario if p2 has a guaranteed win :P

ScarfTar outspeeds both Arcanine and Heracross and can take anything Jolteon can dish out. Stone Edge kills everything except Heracross :x The ideal move would be to sac Jellicent to Arcanine, then send in Ttar for the KO. Against Heracross, it is forced to Close Combat so send in Ferrothorn to rack up the residual damage before sending in Ttar. If it stays in, it will die to SE after the defence drops and residual damage. Jolteon takes SR damage and dies to sandstorm. The only problem with this plan is that we’re relying on the worst move in the game to hit twice…

 

[Chameleon]

Yeah... so far I also see it as a near guaranteed win for p2. And just a note, your Jolteon calcs don't take into account the Sandstorm special defense boost for T-tar.

LONG ANALYSIS TIME

Ferrothorn can just stay in and spike, because it can't be OHKOed by anything but Flare Blitz. If the spikes go up, Jolteon is insta-dead and Heracross is in bad shape. Meanwhile, if Arcanine uses FB, it is reduced to 10% health between FB recoil, LO recoil, Sandstorm damage, and Iron Barbs.

Using CC will not help much (it also makes Arcanine death bait), so lets say it goes with FB and OHKOs Ferrothorn. Ferro's dead and the dog is at 10% health. p2 switches in Tyranitar, and chooses Crunch. Whoever switches in will die (Heracross would be put into KO range for Stone Edge, which would allow T-tar to tear through p1's team later) and Arcanine can't switch in again, so he uses Espeed for minimal damage and dies.

p1 is doomed. Jolteon vs. Tyranitar is suicide, so p1 sends in Heracross. Heracross takes SR damage; just one round of burn and SS damage will put it in guranteed KO range for Tyranno's Stone Edge. But Heracross, even with perfect prediction skills, can't OHKO Jellicent if it switches in, so it will inevitably take two rounds of Burn and SS damage when fighting Jelly and die to Stone Edge afterwards. P1 is helpless because switching to Jolteon will accomplish nothing but give Heracross more SR damage. Jolteon will kill itself if it attacks once, so no hopes for critting and 2HKOing T-tar with Thunderbolt. Jolteon will also kill itself if it switches in on Jellicent, because SS damage and SR damage together will KO it.

So Tyranitar will ultimately KO Heracross with Stone Edge. Jolteon kills itself.


Phew... That was long. Oh, and if Arcanine does CC while Ferro stays in, Ferro will die after getting spikes up, meaning Jolt is dead but Arcanine is alive (and severely weakened). Any difference? No. T-tar will again force out Arcanine with an attack, meaning either it or Hera dies... If Heracross dies, T-tar reigns supreme, and if Arcanine dies, we have the same burn damage stall using Jellicent... except now with more spikes to kill Heracross.

The only thing preventing a guaranteed win for p2 is Stone Edge's accuracy (you only need to hit once or twice) and a Thunderbolt paralysis hax on Tyranitar. If you have bothered reading this and I have made any errors in this analysis, please tell me.

 

[purple crobatchop]

Not much of a scenario if p2 has a guaranteed win :P

ScarfTar outspeeds both Arcanine and Heracross and can take anything Jolteon can dish out. Stone Edge kills everything except Heracross :x The ideal move would be to sac Jellicent to Arcanine, then send in Ttar for the KO. Against Heracross, it is forced to Close Combat so send in Ferrothorn to rack up the residual damage before sending in Ttar. If it stays in, it will die to SE after the defence drops and residual damage. Jolteon takes SR damage and dies to sandstorm. The only problem with this plan is that we’re relying on the worst move in the game to hit twice…

this. Focus Blast is actually better (serious).