super bored and still super hyped for sm so ill drop some thoughts on some mons i think we'll be seeing in nu
Incineroar
only starter i think will end up here, but i think it'll do fine once it does. decent dual stabs backed by high attack + intimidate can lead to it being a decent pivot. cb sets w/ u-turn could easily pivot in on things like mesprit / shiftry / xatu or w/e will be in the tier and go for flare blitz / darkest lariat / u-turn / eq or something like that and pivot around well w/ spikes. a more defensive set can be used w/ moves like wisp and taunt, but low spdef probably means this set will be rarer. also has set up in the form of sd, but low base speed means this will probably never be seen w/o support like tr or webs. think this will probably end up around
b / b-
Toucannon
generational bird, i think it'll be kind of mediocre but good attack might end up saving it. however its super slow, especially vs other birds like chatot / pidgeot and not to much to set it apart will really hurt it. while skill link seems cool at first, its missing some crucial moves like tail slap which makes it not as great. does have a great move set out side of that though, with bullet seed / rock blast / brave bird / boomburst / u-turn / brick break all being viable options. even niche picks like overheat to hit lix might see some use. overall i see this being rarely seen and probably around
c- / d
Gumshoos
similar to the other two mons slow + high attack is what defines this mon in terms of stats. has a really great ability in adaptability, as well as stakeout for a more gimmiky set. decent move pool with options like eq / return / crunch / u-turn / pursuit giving it all it really needs in nu. choice band sets will probably be what defines this mon, but its not that great so it'll probably be
c- / d as well
Vikavolt
another slow attacker, but this time with sky high special atk. specs / aoa / agility sets could all see some use, as nu is the one tier where base 40s can run rp / agility and not feel bad (rhydon). has a very bare movepool outside of its stabs, with energy ball and flash cannon being the only things that stick out from it. volt switch also helps specs sets pivot around w/ energy ball probably being the move of choice if gastro / lanturn remain in the tier. overall i think it will have a solid defined niche in the tier and end up around
b- / c+
Crabominable
slow attacker with decent dual stabs and a good ability sets this mon apart, but the lack of any priority really stings along with its really low defenses and speed. probably only will see use on tr teams, but will be a really strong force once it is under trick room due to ice hamer / close combat being great at destroying common cores in the tier as well as dealing w/ most ice resists which are special this gen (yama / lanturn). probably will end up being
c / c- depending on how viable trick room gets this generation.
Oricorio
these will all probably drop to nu and honestly i think they will be really fun to use. the choice of fire | elec | psychic | ghost is really cool, and they all work well with the secondary stab in flying. they have strong stabs in the 90 bp revelation dance & hurricane and solid boosting moves in agility and calm mind. they also have roost if one of them wants to the the route of defensive cm or 3 atks + roost. i think in terms of viability ghost > fire > elec > psychic will be how it goes, though i could be completely wrong since it really depends on what the common trends in the meta are. i could see at highest one of them reaching
a / a- but going as low as
c+ / c depending on the state of the tier.
Lycanroc Midnight
strong mono rock attacker and the only stealth rocker nu can get i think, lyrcanroc midnight seems to be a kind of interesting mon. on one hand it has a the cool niche of no guard edge backed by moves like sucker punch & swords dance, but on the other hand it really lacks any coverage outside of edge / brick break / sucker / fire fang. rocks lead sets could be cool, but i think the main sets will be cb / sd since its going to hit really hard off of 115 base atk along with sucker punch to pick off faster threats. think this could end up
b / b-.
Lurantis
at first glance this just seems like a shittier servine, and it pretty much is. servine has evio + more utility moves like glare & knock off as well as its a lot faster which gives it a lot of lurantis. lurantis does have some defining qualities though, the ability to run leftovers, higher base spa, and defog all give it a reason to be used over servine. i think the main one that will give it a niche will be defog, as a defog set consisting of leaf storm / defog / synth / hidden power or aromatherapy can see some use. its still going to have a lot of trouble staying viable with base 45 speed and no coverage outside of hidden power (like every mono grass in the tier) but defog will give it a bit of use and probably propel it to
c+ / c
Oranguru
this thing has a really fun movepool in terms of set up / coverage, with options like cm / np along with focus blast / shadow ball / psychic, but it lacks recovery outside of rest and like most alola mons ends up with very low speed. np + taunt could be a cool set to break slower teams along with its good natural bulk to tank hits from offense. a cro set could work with mono psychic coverage, but if things like skunk remain in the tier it'll be very hard to justify using. most sets this can run are probably done better by grumpig at the end of the day, as it only has 10 base hp / 15 base def and a normal typing over it, but a loss of 20 base speed and thick fat puts it quite far behind. probably
c - / d
Passimian
this just seems like a better primeape and if it does end up nu i think it'll be a lot of fun to play with. defiant + cc + u-turn + eq gives it a lot esp with a solid base 120 atk stat to go with it. not really too much to say other than it'll be a really solid mon if it does end up dropping, but a lack of set up & knock off will put it a bit behind against mons like sawk. probably will be
a+ / a if it does drop though.
Palossand
great design along with a cool ability gives palossand a cool niche in the tier, but low speed might be the end of this as well. this will probably be really cool in a core with gigalith since shore up recovers 75% of your health if sand is up. decent dual stabs + good set of resistances lets it tank a lot from common attackers as well. overall pretty cool mon that'll be fun to use on bulkier teams and might end up around
b+ / b
Komala
this thing is super cute + has a really cool ability along with good attack, but it lacks a decent movepool and has no defenses to work with. it has a bunch of cool support moves like wish / u-turn / spin that will give it some use as its also immune to all status, but no attacking moves for the most part outside of normal stabs / sucker punch / play rough leaves a lot to waste due to its 115 atk stat. if this does end up nu expect it around
b / b-
Togedemaru
another fucked up pikachu clone, this one is pretty bad compared to the rest. while it seems cool at first with steel stab, you then realize that it doesnt have any steel attacking moves to use. it also really has very little coverage outside of its stabs which means wild charge / u-turn are the only physical moves it can really use. an offensive pivot set with wild charge / u-turn / spiky shield / wish is all i can really see this doing, and it does that pretty badly with 65 hp and 86 speed. probably
c- / d
Alola Raticate
hustle + dark typing + u-turn is basically what this has to rely on in terms of viability, and it probably wont be enough. terrible stats with nothing going over 80 leaves a lot to be desired, as well as no way to hit steel / rock types well. cb is all i can see this doing, at it probably wont even be able to do that well due to bad typing & lack of resistances. probably
c- / d as well
Alola Sandslash
could end up forming a cool core w/ vanilluxe to break down each others checks with slush rush & snow warning, but typing that leaves it weak to fire / fighting / ground gives it a hard time. it does however have a ton of resistances to typings like bug, Dragon, fairy, flying, grass, ice, normal, and psychic along with a really high defense allows it to pivot into most normal types that lack eq / cc. decent attack with good dual stabs and moves like earthquake to back it up helps as well so in the end this could probably be
b- / c+ depending on the viability of hail in the tier.
Alola Dugtrio
decent attack + decent speed tier gives dugtrio a fun niche, along with a decent dual stab combination. however it has shit defenses meaning it'll really only see use on ho teams as a cb attacker or a really fast scarfer. it also has access to memento which could be cool when paired with sweepers and overall could end up
b- / c+ as well
here are some mons i originally planned on including but thought they will probably end up a bit higher if someone wants to talk about them
Shiinotic
Tsareena
Turtonator
Bruxish
sorry for any mistakes but i kinda did this fast & its 1am so its w/e since i just wanted to get my thoughts out there. im curious to see what you guys think though and hate having to wait 4 more months at least to get even an idea of what the tier will look like.