Circus Maximus Tigers (2) vs (1) Indie Scooters
SV OU: Trosko vs hellom
A rematch from early in the season between two of the top SV records, this game lacks nothing in terms of hype. hellom's performance is better described with numbers than with words, and the set of players that should be bolded against him right now is arguably empty. However, I get the feeling that the pressure of The Streak alongside fatigue in a tier he doesn't love is adding up heading into this tiebreak. Meanwhile, I imagine Trosko is more looking forward to this rematch as the loser of their first encounter and is arguably at the top of the list of players that could end hellom's streak regardless. hellom may be the best (sorry, lax), but I'm afraid that the 11-0 may not be in the cards, their heart notwithstanding.
DPP OU: Le Don vs elodin
A surprising pick from the Tigers. It seems they are targeting the Scooters' DPP struggles as much as if not more than they are going with what they are best at. However, Le Don is no slouch and has a good chance here to move to 3-0 against the Scooters' this season. The information asymmetry plays in elodin's favor here, and I would not put him as a large underdog, but I think Le Don's experience in the tier is more important here. That said, carrying the trust of his team in the highest stakes game he's played, Le Don will have a tough task ahead of him if he aims to flip the Burger.
RBY OU: M Dragon vs Gefährlicher Random
By now I really should have learned to not bet against the Dragon, but Felix's mastery of this tier is hard to not favor. I'm looking forward to whatever one-liner M Dragon drops to punctuate his win if he manages to once again clutch in this spot, but I think the User of Cheats will best the Spaniard this time.
Dragonspiral Tyrants (3) vs (0) Alpha Ruiners
SV OU: myjava vs xavgb
Speaking of Spaniards losing to cheats, the timeline to get us to this tiebreak is crazy. In keeping with the theme, the Ruiners decided to make their tiebreak picks all controversial, just like decision that got us here. In SV, they've chosen a player who's negative in this tour over believing that mike, who's 8-0 against the rest of the field, can improve to 1-2 against myjava in this tour. On the other side, myjava's breakout performance this tour combined with CTC's untimely ban has given them an easy choice for who to champion them in SV. After smoking the Ruiners 4-0 in the semis, it seems myjava and the Tyrants have good odds to beat stresh here, who history has not favored in this position.
DPP OU: SoulWind vs Fakes
After seeing how well clicking Iron Head against SoulWind worked last week, the Ruiners are increasing their chances at repeating such antics by going with DPP as the tier of choice to fight him in. Speaking of 60% chances, I'd say that's a decent estimate of the likelihood that SoulWind drops a "gg" after this game; make of that what you will. In all seriousness, this game was very hard to pick a favorite for, and Fakes in his tier of choice is a threat and a half. His self-proclaimed lack of involvement in DPP in a Long time has me defaulting to favoring one of the Greatest to invalidate the opponent's tiebreak pick once more.
RBY OU: Heroic Troller vs Charmflash
In a move the Stours discord had to see to believe, the Ruiners are favoring Charm over "third time's the charm" for Khaetis in RBY. I have since learned that Charm has been laddering RBY recently, so this is not as out of the blue as it otherwise would be. Troller simply must be bolded here, but two SPLs ago we were reminded that this is no guarantee. Charm is certainly a great player and only needs to be a flash in the pan in RBY to take this; I'm excited to see what he's cooked.