Metagame SS OU Metagame Discussion Thread v6 (Usage stats in post #408)

[infinitemugen99]

First post here, and on this website too.

1. Which mons do you think benefited the most from Cinderace() and Magearna() being banned?
   • I'll mention the more obvious answers to this question first. The metal birds - Corviknight(), and Skarmory () seem to be mons that have highly benefited from the Cinderace and Magearna bans, since the threats of the insanely strong Pyro Ball and the Choice Specs powered Volt Switch from Magearna are now gone. This has allowed Corviknight to return to the metagame to reclaim its position as the premier defogger. The entry of Skarmory into the metagame has shown that Heavy Duty Boots does not make hazards completely obsolete, and Spikes can be seen putting in the work against several teams, especially when supported with Knock Off to make the opposition more prone to taking hazard damage.
   • Other clear winners of the bans include prominent Grass mons such as Rillaboom (), Amoonguss(), Tangrowth() and especially Ferrothorn(). They were offensively pressured by Cinderace and had difficulty breaking down the powerful, yet bulky Magearna. Seeing these go has been a treat for the Grass types in general.
   • Other mons that benefited from the bans include Kyurem(), Hatterene(), Blissey(), Magnezone(), Tyranitar() and to some extent Volcarona ().
   • One Pokemon that I feel has highly benefited from these bans, but has been a bit ignored in this discussion due to its already sky-high usage is the ever-reliable Clefable(). Seeing Cinderace go means that it does not need to worry about being KO'd by a Gunk Shot, and it also appreciates not having to take a Choice Specs powered Flash Cannon from Magearna. On the offensive side of things, Clefable now has two less mons that resist its STAB Moonblast. This has manifested within the metagame with an increase in the usage of offensive Clef sets utilizing Calm Mind+Life Orb. Other Fairies such as Togekiss(), and Primarina() appreciate these bans for similar reasons.
2. Which mons suffered the most from Cinderace() and Magearna() being banned?
   • Rotom-Heat () acted as a check to both Magearna and Cinderace during their stay in OU, and has now lost that position with these bans. I feel like it's still a pretty good mon in the current metagame due to its great offensive presence against the metal birds and the upcoming Grass mons, and taking advantage of healthy mons like Blissey() with Pain Split. It's just not as good as it used to be.
   • Mandibuzz () usage has taken a hit with the bans of Cinderace and Magearna as it opened up the spots for the metal birds, that can do the task of pivoting and hazard removal much more reliably. However, I feel like Mandibuzz may still have some use in the current metagame with access to Foul Play, which can take on many Pokemon in the metagame that like to boost their Attack stat such as Rillaboom(), Dragapult(), Azumarill(), and some other fringe picks such as Scolipede() and Haxorus().
3. Among the mons that rose, do you think they will stay in OU, or do you think they will fall right back down next month?
   • I can see Aegislash(), Gengar(), Hatterene(), Tyranitar(), Kyurem(), and Skarmory() staying in OU for the forseeable future. Each of them provides something unique, be it in the form of typing, weather control, stall breaking capabilities, hazards/hazard control or some combination of these, that would be helpful to multiple teams.
   • I don't see Toxtricity(), and Necrozma() staying in OU for long, as these seem to fit only on (sometimes specific) HO builds. The same goes for DItto(), which only really seems to fit on Stall teams. Knowing that most of the ladder has a hatred for stall teams, Ditto will probably go back to the depths of the lower tiers as soon as the OLT cycles end, and the ladder goes back to its usual, balance-loving self.
4. What mons do you believe will continue to see high usage?
   • Urshifu(), Clefable(), Corviknight(), Dragapult() and Blissey() will continue to see high usage, in my opinion.
5. What mons do you believe will continue to see low/lower usage?
   • Alakazam() seems to be a hard mon to use in the current metagame, with physical priority attacks on the rise and its abysmal physical bulk. Psychic Terrain is helpful to deal with it, but there are still options that can deal with its boosted moves and stall out the terrain. Removing Indeedee () from the match is not too hard either, as its bulk is pretty bad too. It's amazing speed tier and Magic Guard seems to be its saving grace as of now.
6. What mons do you think are underrated and may see higher usage in the future?
   • Aegislash() for providing both defensive and offensive capabilities to the team and doing what it has always been doing since the generation it was introduced. It is only going to get better this generation with the removal of Pursuit.
   • Hatterene() usage has recently shot up, and for good reason. It can act as a wincon using CM, can keep other boosting special attackers such as Volcarona() in check with Mystical Fire (this also gives it an offensive option against steels), and has a recovery option in the form of Draining Kiss. It also has a useful and rare ability in the form of Magic Bounce making it an all around solid mon to use.
7. What mons do you think are overrated and may see less usage in the future?
   • None that immediately come to mind as of now.
8. How do you feel about team building? Does it feel like there are too many things to cover, or are there certain mons that restrict building?
   • Disclaimer: I do not teambuild much, so I'll be talking from a place of limited experience. It does not feel that there are too many things to cover. Most threats that can't be outright handled can usually be revenge killed with the support of a partner. Urshifu () can be restrictive in the teambuilder, but is much easier to handle in games.
9. What is your favorite mon that saw increased usage this month?
   • Gengar().
10. How do you feel about the new metagame?
    • The post DLC metagame is the first Smogon (and competitive Pokemon) metagame I've ever played, so I don't really have much experience as reference. Metagame seems fine.

 

[Negative Charge]

Can we talk about item clause? It is an odd departure from Nintendo formats and would seem to logically be supported for the same reasons we have species clause. Set diversity would go up, as would the necessity of hazard removal. Would love to hear a council member’s thoughts

 

[Jordy]

Can we talk about item clause? It is an odd departure from Nintendo formats and would seem to logically be supported for the same reasons we have species clause. Set diversity would go up, as would the necessity of hazard removal. Would love to hear a council member’s thoughts

Hey, I think that if this is discussed anywhere, it should be the Policy Review forum. This discussion would outrange this thread (and metagame as a whole) by far and I don't think it's really appropriate to discuss here as a result. If you wish for it to be discussed in the Policy Review subforum, you can look for support from council members and they may bring it up then. You could probably request access too, although I don't know the policy surrounding that so you should absolutely make sure with Senior Staff how that works and if it's at all possible. Someone like chaos may also be able to clear up this initial decision.

Thanks for understanding and have a good day!

 

[TheArchangle]

View attachment 272915​

With the rise of Tyranitar + Excadrill teams, and Rillaboom seeing a surge in usage, I have no doubt Hawlucha will be a dark horse in this meta. Not only is it a great Rillaboom teammate, it also is one of the few Pokemon to outspeed Excadrill in sand (once Unburden is activated). Hawlucha also happens to have a great match up against opposing Rillaboom and Tyranitar and can prey on top tier threats such as Volcarona and Urshifu, both of which are on the rise and top meta picks.

Keep your eyes peeled, and maybe try to use Hawlucha, you might just find some success with it

Always been a huge fan of Taunt Hawlucha who to your point about a matchup with sand also uses Hippo as setup bait. The Mage ban removes one of the few Pokemon in the tier who could actually take a hit at +2, it's partner Rillaboom is better in the metagame than ever before, and Mandibuzz falling in popularity in favor of Corv and Skarm helps as while all three could take a hit from it at +2, the latter two are trapped by Magnezone.

 

[Seucra Lockhart]

Am I the only one who just doesn't get toxtricity? I've played with it a lot yesterday and I just don't get it.I've read the posts about toxtricity and while interesting to read as usual it doesn't get backed up when I'm playing with. The set right now is Shift Gear/Overdrive/Boomburst and either Drain Punch or Throat Chop, but here is the problem. If I run throat chop 99% of the time I will face a dragapult that can freely switch in and I'm forced to switch out because toxiricity is too fucking frail but if I run throat chop well have fun getting one shot by excadrill/t-tar and doing anything in return LOL(and don't get me started on blissey). What I have found with toxtricity is at least with my experience with it is it is a liability.It looks like this amazing toxapex check while also a great mid to late clean cleaner but what it has really done for me is either predict perfectly with your boombursts/overdrive too either prevent ground types from threatening you or to chip dragapult. Shift Gear and the opportunities to set up however is what turns me off from toxicity, in short, there are basically none. I've tried to set up on clefables and toxapexes alike but what has ended up happening is either A: get knocked off by toxapex cause they know they can survive overdrive thus removing my life orb(or are crazy) and hindering its ability to break throughout the rest of the game(like it'll survive for that long) or B: teleport into whatever can sponge an attack and OHKO in return such as Hippowdon,Dragapult,Aegislash,Kommo-o,Hatterene(Cause toxtricity doesn't run sludge wave anymore unless its specs which is 100% garbage).IDK i would appreciate tips on how to use this thing cause maybe there's something I'm missing but god I think this thing is overhyped due to OLT and I think it will 100% fall to UU where it belongs.

 

[astroshagger]

Am I the only one who just doesn't get toxtricity? I've played with it a lot yesterday and I just don't get it.I've read the posts about toxtricity and while interesting to read as usual it doesn't get backed up when I'm playing with. The set right now is Shift Gear/Overdrive/Boomburst and either Drain Punch or Throat Chop, but here is the problem. If I run throat chop 99% of the time I will face a dragapult that can freely switch in and I'm forced to switch out because toxiricity is too fucking frail but if I run throat chop well have fun getting one shot by excadrill/t-tar and doing anything in return LOL(and don't get me started on blissey). What I have found with toxtricity is at least with my experience with it is it is a liability.It looks like this amazing toxapex check while also a great mid to late clean cleaner but what it has really done for me is either predict perfectly with your boombursts/overdrive too either prevent ground types from threatening you or to chip dragapult. Shift Gear and the opportunities to set up however is what turns me off from toxicity, in short, there are basically none. I've tried to set up on clefables and toxapexes alike but what has ended up happening is either A: get knocked off by toxapex cause they know they can survive overdrive thus removing my life orb(or are crazy) and hindering its ability to break throughout the rest of the game(like it'll survive for that long) or B: teleport into whatever can sponge an attack and OHKO in return such as Hippowdon,Dragapult,Aegislash,Kommo-o,Hatterene(Cause toxtricity doesn't run sludge wave anymore unless its specs which is 100% garbage).IDK i would appreciate tips on how to use this thing cause maybe there's something I'm missing but god I think this thing is overhyped due to OLT and I think it will 100% fall to UU where it belongs.

Try using an HO Screens team, and inflict more chip damage on things before trying to set up.

 

[The Dragon Master]

Am I the only one who just doesn't get toxtricity? I've played with it a lot yesterday and I just don't get it.I've read the posts about toxtricity and while interesting to read as usual it doesn't get backed up when I'm playing with. The set right now is Shift Gear/Overdrive/Boomburst and either Drain Punch or Throat Chop, but here is the problem. If I run throat chop 99% of the time I will face a dragapult that can freely switch in and I'm forced to switch out because toxiricity is too fucking frail but if I run throat chop well have fun getting one shot by excadrill/t-tar and doing anything in return LOL(and don't get me started on blissey). What I have found with toxtricity is at least with my experience with it is it is a liability.It looks like this amazing toxapex check while also a great mid to late clean cleaner but what it has really done for me is either predict perfectly with your boombursts/overdrive too either prevent ground types from threatening you or to chip dragapult. Shift Gear and the opportunities to set up however is what turns me off from toxicity, in short, there are basically none. I've tried to set up on clefables and toxapexes alike but what has ended up happening is either A: get knocked off by toxapex cause they know they can survive overdrive thus removing my life orb(or are crazy) and hindering its ability to break throughout the rest of the game(like it'll survive for that long) or B: teleport into whatever can sponge an attack and OHKO in return such as Hippowdon,Dragapult,Aegislash,Kommo-o,Hatterene(Cause toxtricity doesn't run sludge wave anymore unless its specs which is 100% garbage).IDK i would appreciate tips on how to use this thing cause maybe there's something I'm missing but god I think this thing is overhyped due to OLT and I think it will 100% fall to UU where it belongs.

Knock off can be avoided by using throat spray Instead of lo at the cost of losing the boost when you switch. You boomburst as they knock, it becomes weak and other than that they actually can't do much to it as it's not deoxys attack levels of frail and it's ever useful poison immunity. It struggles to switch in and so it's mostly used on offense and HO as those playstyles can provide volt turn support to bring it in safely. It's Dragpult weakness is crippling but manageable as it can't take too many overdrives :

148+ SpA Life Orb Punk Rock Toxtricity Overdrive vs. 0 HP / 4 SpD Dragapult: 128-152 (40.3 - 47.9%) -- 55.1% chance to 2HKO after Stealth Rock

 

[KarateKoala]

I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on quick claw slowbro-g at the moment. I play a lot of offense, so my perspective might be skewed, but that mon is the definition of uncompetitive. It turns every attempt at a revenge kill into a 50-50, and is just about totally brainless if it manages to get even one nasty plot off. I can't really tell if it is just me being salty or whether it is actually a problematic mon at the moment.

 

[ShootingStarmie]

I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on quick claw slowbro-g at the moment. I play a lot of offense, so my perspective might be skewed, but that mon is the definition of uncompetitive. It turns every attempt at a revenge kill into a 50-50, and is just about totally brainless if it manages to get even one nasty plot off. I can't really tell if it is just me being salty or whether it is actually a problematic mon at the moment.

Yea, I certainly share this view, as its pretty much a coin flip whether Slowbro Galar goes first or not, which is a huge deal. The main argument I can think of for it not being broken is that it doesn't see much usage, and the Pokemon has to invest both an Item and Ability in order to achieve this effect, which is a HUGE deal no matter how you slice it. I think the best example to compare it to would be Togekiss / Jirachi flinching with their STAB attacks. They're arguably un-competitive, but not broken

Slowbro Galar isn't broken, but it could be considered un-competitive

 

[Negative Charge]

is the pex or clef or cinder suspect happening soon? I realize a test takes time to put together but are any of these gonna happen before DLC 2?

 

[The Dragon Master]

Yea, I certainly share this view, as its pretty much a coin flip whether Slowbro Galar goes first or not, which is a huge deal. The main argument I can think of for it not being broken is that it doesn't see much usage, and the Pokemon has to invest both an Item and Ability in order to achieve this effect, which is a HUGE deal no matter how you slice it. I think the best example to compare it to would be Togekiss / Jirachi flinching with their STAB attacks. They're arguably un-competitive, but not broken

Slowbro Galar isn't broken, but it could be considered un-competitive

I'm wondering what everyone's thoughts are on quick claw slowbro-g at the moment. I play a lot of offense, so my perspective might be skewed, but that mon is the definition of uncompetitive. It turns every attempt at a revenge kill into a 50-50, and is just about totally brainless if it manages to get even one nasty plot off. I can't really tell if it is just me being salty or whether it is actually a problematic mon at the moment.

Honestly I don't understand why smogon has such a huge problem with evasion, which is definitely uncompetitive but no problem with moves having a 60% change to flinch or moves having a 50% chance to just ruin your team with the power of hax.

 

[DaemonChop]

Honestly I don't understand why smogon has such a huge problem with evasion, which is definitely uncompetitive but no problem with moves having a 60% change to flinch or moves having a 50% chance to just ruin your team with the power of hax.

With moves that can flinch or have some sort of debilitating secondary effect, you at least know those moves have that risk. Every time you take an Iron Head or a Waterfall, you need to be aware and ready for the fact that you could flinch. Same with Scald, or Ice Beam freezes, or Crunch defense drops, or whatever. You know what the risk of a given move is, and should plan accordingly at least a little. Evasion, on the other hand, affects everything, and gives basically every mon the option to just ignore incoming attacks altogether, which you can't do with flinch abusers like Jirachi or Togekiss - they can be outsped, or outplayed with priority, or whatever. You can prepare for them at the very least - with Dragapult, Urshifu, Zeraora, etc. You can't prepare for Minimize horseshit, you just have to get lucky.

 

[Jordy]

This is not the place for a discussion about evasion, but I'll quickly describe the difference between 60% flinches and evasion. The difference is that the impact of 60% flinches can be minimized; Togekiss and Jirachi are currently the only viable Pokemon that can employ these strategies and they have solid checks. A couple examples are Rotom-H, Toxapex, Excadrill, and Zeraora. This is not the case for evasion. Evasion takes control out of the player's hands; it turns the game into a complete game of luck. You have to get lucky enough not to miss too many moves. This is very clearly uncompetitive.

 

[Piplz]

Simply put, unlike flinches, evasion can be banned. It's simple to do so, the only non-banned move that can still boost evasion is acupressure iirc? Low% flinches, burns, freezes, stat drops etc can't be banned unless you're removing half the moves in the game.

So, unless you want to play Pokemon using Water Gun and Leafage as your primary stabs, you just gotta deal with the majority of moves having some possible RNG effects.

I really don't think the discussion goes further than that. In an ideal world it could work differently, but that's simply not how Pokemon is.

 

[KarateKoala]

My issue with Slowbro-G is that Shell Side Arm ensures that it destroys stall. In theory mons that are faster should be able to take care of it relatively easily, especially with its bad defensive typing. However, unlike togekiss or jirachi, it doesn't matter if you outspeed, because it has a 50/50 chance to go first no matter what. So on paper, the playstyle that should be easily able to deal with Slowbro-G can't if the user just gets lucky. Suckerpunch is the only pure skill based chance you get against the mon. And even then, if your Urshifu is banded, he can just nasty plot instead. I agree that I don't think the mon is broken at all, but in my opinion it is without a doubt uncompetitive and worth looking at.

 

[Empress Mobile]

I think I've gone into this before, but QD + QC Slowbro-G is such a niche afterthought that the thought of considering it under any policy lens in this metagame seems bizarre to me. It is generally defensively inferior to the Slow twins which is only compounded by dropping Regenerator and HDB/Leftovers. QD awards it no favors in finding opportunities to set up which is worsened if Slowbro-G is not invested in bulk significantly. Its attacking power is still unimpressive even at +2 and moveslot restriction means it cannot run all of NP, slack off, STAB moves and a fire move. And its STAB combination is atrocious. I've seen some high level players using it as heat but it's such an inconsistent gimmick that it's not seen much outside of that. It's easy to pressure it to the point that it requires a QD activation AND the ability to KO the opponent on every turn. Most offensive teams are filled with mons that threaten irreconcilable damage to it, so I find it hard to see where it would even get the chance to set up.

Also Shell Side Arm is a bizarre move to use on a NP set as it'll ignore the boosts if it hits physically. It has a lower poison chance than Sludge Bomb.

 

[BigFatMantis]

Slowbro-G with QD + QC gets wrekt in OU. It is super duper uncompetitive, and you can get a few lucky kills with it if you get lucky, but there's so many things in OU that can trash it even with QD + QC setup. You are basically just trying a big gimmick by using it in OU and against a skilled player you may win one out of ten times if you get really lucky.

In lower tiers I think it's a bigger problem though and should be looked at, for the noncompetitive nature of it. It can sweep entire teams in RU with just one NP and some luck on QD + QC.

 

[MrHands]

I think I've gone into this before, but QD + QC Slowbro-G is such a niche afterthought that the thought of considering it under any policy lens in this metagame seems bizarre to me. It is generally defensively inferior to the Slow twins which is only compounded by dropping Regenerator and HDB/Leftovers. QD awards it no favors in finding opportunities to set up which is worsened if Slowbro-G is not invested in bulk significantly. Its attacking power is still unimpressive even at +2 and moveslot restriction means it cannot run all of NP, slack off, STAB moves and a fire move. And its STAB combination is atrocious. I've seen some high level players using it as heat but it's such an inconsistent gimmick that it's not seen much outside of that. It's easy to pressure it to the point that it requires a QD activation AND the ability to KO the opponent on every turn. Most offensive teams are filled with mons that threaten irreconcilable damage to it, so I find it hard to see where it would even get the chance to set up.

Also Shell Side Arm is a bizarre move to use on a NP set as it'll ignore the boosts if it hits physically. It has a lower poison chance than Sludge Bomb.

I agree overall but a couple things I think are wrong with what you said.

1) It does invest in bulk, presumably 252 or so HP. Even if it runs a little speed out outrun Pex it's still going to have enough bulk to setup on Clefable, Corviknight, or whatever else.

2) STABs + Fire + Nasty Plot. It can't run Slack Off but I don't really think it's going to give up coverage anyway especially since you already dropped Regenerator.

3) Shell Side Arm counts stat boosts before deciding to be physical or special (If I'm wrong please correct me, I'm going by the Showdown damage calculator). If this is the case at +2 you're going to be using a special attack against everything including Calm Chansey. As long as your attack IV is 0 and you're Modest I don't think there are going to be any situations SSA will be physical except against Calm Minders and even then you're going to be clicking Psyshock.

Edit: I'm wrong. I thought Shell Side Arm had occasional priority increases but that's the ability. Never mind Sludge Bomb is far superior!

Again I do agree Quick Claw Slowbro isn't worth a suspect discussion lol I'm just bored and drunk and want to argue Pokemon on the internet.

 

[Caionamax]

3) Shell Side Arm counts stat boosts before deciding to be physical or special (If I'm wrong please correct me, I'm going by the Showdown damage calculator). If this is the case at +2 you're going to be using a special attack against everything including Calm Chansey. As long as your attack IV is 0 and you're Modest I don't think there are going to be any situations SSA will be physical except against Calm Minders and

Has a 20% chance to poison the target. This move becomes a physical attack that makes contact if the value of ((((2 * the user's level / 5 + 2) * 90 * X) / Y) / 50), where X is the user's Attack stat and Y is the target's Defense stat, is greater than the same value where X is the user's Special Attack stat and Y is the target's Special Defense stat. No stat modifiers other than stat stage changes are considered for this purpose. If the two values are equal, this move chooses a damage category at random.

 

[Ruft]

As the description points out, Shell Side Arm does indeed take stat stage changes like Nasty Plot into account before deciding if the move turns out special or physical. What this comes down to is that Shell Side Arm is pretty much only physical when unboosted Slowbro uses it against Blissey, Primarina or other Calm Mind users that have gotten some boosts off. However, if Slowbro gets one or more Nasty Plots off, it's pretty much always gonna be special (except maybe against CM-boosted Primarina). The thing is though that in my opinion, with the prevalence of Blissey and CM users, Slowbro should run Psyshock anyway and a boosted 252+ SpA Psyshock is gonna be hitting much harder on the physical side than an unboosted -0 Attack physical Shell Side Arm would do. In this case, the only truly relevant application of physical Shell Side Arm is unboosted Slowbro using it against boosted Hatterene, since the latter resists Psyshock and is weak to Shell Side Arm (0- Atk Shell Side Arm will do a little under half and without creep this tends to be a Speed tie since both usually run Speed for Toxapex). Personally, I think the additional 10% poison chance from Sludge Bomb is gonna come in handy more often than this niche situation. If you're running Psychic rather than Psyshock however, then you might as well go with Shell Side Arm to hit Calm Mind users for a decent amount.

In a nutshell, I think you should either run this:
Slowbro-Galar @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 212 HP / 252 SpA / 44 Spe
Modest Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Sludge Bomb
- Psyshock
- Flamethrower / Fire Blast

...or this:
Slowbro-Galar @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 212 HP / 252 SpA / 44 Spe
Modest Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Shell Side Arm
- Psychic
- Flamethrower / Fire Blast

...but you can also be annoying and run Quick Claw + Quick Draw, which I wouldn't recommend since it's very much unreliable.
(I would also recommend investing a little more into Speed to creep opposing Hatterene, Reuniclus, and potential Speed-invested Toxapex.)

 

[Vert]

since y'all talkin galar bro, here are some pretty uncompetitive replays of it from cycle 2 high ladder

https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1171943050
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1171939263
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1172622107
https://replay.pokemonshowdown.com/gen8ou-1172626709

but i don't think it's even close to as bad as moody or baton pass tho. not worth lookin into, like u coulda brought baton pass cheese to an important match with confidence. not this shit lmao

 

[TheTraininator]

Broke: Nasty Plot DrawClaw

Woke: Belly Drum DrawClaw

Shell Side Arm is a Physical Poison STAB too, you know.

Let’s please not ban shitty fun meme sets.

 

[OopsieTheDoopsie]

Belly Drum DrawClaw

Now THIS is big brain thinking

 

[Mushfiq]

Had pretty much the same thoughts about G-Slowbro. And you can't truly prepare for it since with the ability to go both physical or special, solid movepool and access to both Nasty Plot and Belly Drum, you only have an abysmal selection of Pokemon that can completely counter it defensively.

I believe the nature of QDraw+QClaw Slowbro is uncompetitive in a similar manner to OHKO moves, Sand Veil/Snow Cloak and Moody, in that it consistently forces game breaking coin flips that take control away from the players.

While there are some strategies that players can use to guarantee a safety net vs G QDraw Slowbro, such as packing complete defensive answers (which barely exist btw, take a look at it's movepool) or packing something like a Bisharp with Sucker Punch. However, these counter-plays are extremely limited in number. Just like how OHKO moves and Sand Veil/Snow Cloak had extremely limited guaranteed counter-plays (Sturdy mons, accuracy boosting moves, can't miss moves).

 

[Empress Mobile]

As the description points out, Shell Side Arm does indeed take stat stage changes like Nasty Plot into account before deciding if the move turns out special or physical. What this comes down to is that Shell Side Arm is pretty much only physical when unboosted Slowbro uses it against Blissey, Primarina or other Calm Mind users that have gotten some boosts off. However, if Slowbro gets one or more Nasty Plots off, it's pretty much always gonna be special (except maybe against CM-boosted Primarina). The thing is though that in my opinion, with the prevalence of Blissey and CM users, Slowbro should run Psyshock anyway and a boosted 252+ SpA Psyshock is gonna be hitting much harder on the physical side than an unboosted -0 Attack physical Shell Side Arm would do. In this case, the only truly relevant application of physical Shell Side Arm is unboosted Slowbro using it against boosted Hatterene, since the latter resists Psyshock and is weak to Shell Side Arm (0- Atk Shell Side Arm will do a little under half and without creep this tends to be a Speed tie since both usually run Speed for Toxapex). Personally, I think the additional 10% poison chance from Sludge Bomb is gonna come in handy more often than this niche situation. If you're running Psychic rather than Psyshock however, then you might as well go with Shell Side Arm to hit Calm Mind users for a decent amount.

In a nutshell, I think you should either run this:
Slowbro-Galar @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 212 HP / 252 SpA / 44 Spe
Modest Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Sludge Bomb
- Psyshock
- Flamethrower / Fire Blast

...or this:
Slowbro-Galar @ Black Sludge
Ability: Regenerator
EVs: 212 HP / 252 SpA / 44 Spe
Modest Nature
- Nasty Plot
- Shell Side Arm
- Psychic
- Flamethrower / Fire Blast

...but you can also be annoying and run Quick Claw + Quick Draw, which I wouldn't recommend since it's very much unreliable.
(I would also recommend investing a little more into Speed to creep opposing Hatterene, Reuniclus, and potential Speed-invested Toxapex.)

Yes I should have clarified what I meant, that if the move did turn out to be physical then it wouldn't take the NP boosts into account for damage calculation, though you are right pointing out that would never happen anyway unless the opponent has some CM boosts under its belt. I would have to agree though that Regen is the superior set.