With the Playoffs almost in sight, I have compiled scenarios on how each team can still make it in! Believe it or not, NO TEAM IS GUARANTEED IN AT THIS POINT! So as Mario would say, here we go!
Silicobra Kai
Record: 4-0-1
Points: 9
Differential: +14
The Silicobras are NOT a lock for the playoffs despite what everyone thinks. But it will take a total meltdown combined with the most absurd circumstances from other matchups for them to be out. Basically the ONLY circumstance where they miss the playoffs is if all of these things happen:
1: They lose Week 6 and Week 7, and REALLY lose big, by a least 8 total points combined (depends on the other teams that win)
2: Starly Rae has to TIE against either Deez Nuts or Diancie, then they must lose the other matchup but only by very little (4-6).
3: Diancie has to win big in Week 7 against the Sunfloras. For Week 6 they must tie or beat Starly Rae (but if they tie then Starly Rae must lose to Deez Nuts, and if they win then Starly Rae must tie Deez Nuts)
4: Deez Nuts have to win big against Silicobra this week, and I mean REALLY big, and then they must either beat or tie Starly Rae (but see above).
5: Poliwags have to win big against the Kakunas and Venusaurs both weeks.
If somehow ALL of these things happen at once, then the Silicobras are packing home.
Starly Rae Jepsen
Record: 4-1-0
Points: 8
Differential: +10
If the Silicobras are not guaranteed, then neither are the Starlys. And they are actually not very safe as they face both the Diancies and Deez Nuts, two teams that could surpass them immediately if they lose both matchups. Here's what they need to do to stay in:
#1: Easiest method in is to win either Week 6 or Week 7. Either one secures a playoff spot.
#2: If the tie one week and lose the other, they are still PROBABLY in, but if they somehow lose tremendously to the point where there differential is now worse than the team they tied, AND Diancie, Deez Nuts, and Poliwags all win out (with all three winning by healthy margins), then the Starlys are out.
#3: If they lose both weeks, they can actually still make it. But if Deez Nuts and Diancies gain enough of a differential on them, and the Poliwags gain 3 points (i.e. Win + Tie or Win + Win) in the last two weeks while also make up their differential, then the Starlys are out.
Diancie is Unbreakable
Record: 2-1-2
Points: 6
Differential: +4
Here is where things start to get interesting, and where there is much room for error. This is how the Diancies get into the playoffs:
#1: Win Weeks 6 and 7. This will guarantee a spot and is the easiest way in.
#2: Tie one week and Win the other. This will give them 9 points, and the only way they can miss out with this is if all of these things happen at once: the Poliwags win out both weeks by large enough margins to gain the differential advantage. Additionally, Starly Rae would have to at least tie one week, and Deez Nuts would have to also Tie + Win (with a better differential gain) or Win + Win.
#3: Tie both weeks or Win one and Lose one: This puts them at 8 points, which is shaky, but still possible. As long as the Poliwags don't gain +3 points and close the differential, or Deez Nuts don't gain +2 points and close the differential, then Diancie is still safe in this scenario.
#4: Tie one week and lose the other. This makes the Diancies likely to miss out, and it would just take one win by Deez Nuts and the Poliwags (with enough differential), or even two wins by the Kakunas with either of the other two teams winning, to close the gap and kick the Diancies.
#5: Lose both weeks. While it is still possible to get in losing both weeks, it would only take a Tie by Deez Nuts and a win by the Poliwags in the last two weeks (or the Kakunas also gaining ground) to kick the Diancies here.
Sirfetch'deez Nuts
Record: 2-1-2
Points: 6
Differential: +1
The Sirfetchds are in a similar position as the Diancies. Here's how they get in:
#1: Win Weeks 6 and 7. This will guarantee a spot and is the easiest way in.
#2: Tie one week and Win the other. This will give them 9 points, and the only way they can miss out with this is if all of these things happen at once: the Poliwags win out both weeks by large enough margins to gain the differential advantage (not that hard since Sirfetchds don't have a great differential). Additionally, Starly Rae would have to at least tie one week, and Diancie would have to also Tie + Win (while maintaining the differential advantage) or Win + Win.
#3: Tie both weeks or Win one and Lose one: This puts them at 8 points, which means they can still get in, BUT: If the Poliwags gain +3 points and close the differential, and Diancie gains +2 points and maintains the differential advantage, then Sirfetchd is out.
#4: Tie one week and lose the other. This makes Deez Nuts likely to miss out, and it would just take one win by Diancie and the Poliwags (with enough differential), or even two wins by the Kakunas with either of the other two teams winning, to close the gap and kick Deez Nuts out of the running.
#5: Lose both weeks. While it is still possible to get in losing both weeks, it would only take a win by the Poliwags in the last two weeks, and a single win by the Kakunas (with enough differential) or a win and tie/win, and Deez Nuts are out of here.
Yolo Swag Poliwags
Record: 1-1-3
Points: 5
Differential: -2
The Poliwags still have a decent shot of making it. But they will also need some help. Here's how they do it:
#1: Win out both weeks and the Poliwags are likely in, though not guaranteed. As long as Diancie or Deez Nuts loses a week, or ties a week but lose the differential edge, then the Poliwags are in.
#2: Win and Tie: If this happens, then the Poliwags are at 8 points, and will need to hope that the Diancie or Deez Nuts don't gain +2 points, and also hope the Kakunas don't win out big both weeks, to secure the playoff spot.
#3: Win and Lose or Win and Tie: this is 7 total points which is difficult but not impossible. It will require the Diancies and Sirfetchd's to likely both lose both weeks, and also require the Kakunas to not gain +3 points in those two weeks.
#4: Tie and Lose: This likely kicks the Poliwags, but if a miracle happens and the Diancies and Sirfetch'ds have total meltdowns to the point their differential is abyssmally changed, and the Kakunas don't gain +2 points, then the Poliwags can actually still make it in with this.
Kakuna Matata
Record: 2-3-0
Points: 4
Differential: -1
The Kakunas are down bad but not quite out yet! Here's how they get in:
#1: Win out both weeks is the best chance they have. But they would also need at least two of the teams above them to flounder. Lucky for them, there's a lot of potential combinations of mishaps for those teams to undergo to give them a shot. Just
two of the following need to happen:
The Starlys have a meltdown and lose out and lose their differential edge.
Diancie fails to get +2 points in final weeks, or gets +2 but loses the differential edge.
Deez Nuts fail to get +2 points in final weeks, or get +2 but lose the differential edge.
Poliwags fail to get +3 points in final weeks, or get +3 but lose the differential edge.
If two of those things happen, and Kakunas win Weeks 6 and 7, then the Kakunas are in.
#2: Tie one week and win the other. This is much more difficult, but still possible. It will require another
two of the following to happen:
Diancie fails to get +1 points in final weeks, or gets +1 but loses the differential edge.
Deez Nuts fail to get +1 points in final weeks, or get +1 but lose the differential edge.
Poliwags fail to get +2 points in final weeks, or get +2 but lose the differential edge.
Two of those need to happen in this scenario for Kakunas to be in.
#3: Get +2 points in last two weeks, but you cannot lose to the Poliwags in Week 6. Even still, the Kakunas would also need the Diancies and Deez Nuts to have meltdowns and lose both weeks while losing key differntial points. It's unlikely all this happens, but still possible.
Here Comes the Sunfloras
Record: 1-4-0
Points: 2
Differential: -10
The Sunfloras are actually not out yet, though it will take a Christmas Miracle for them to actually make it. Here is what has to happen:
1: First, they need to win out both weeks. They also have to win really big. No other option, so let's start with that. Then,
THREE OUT OF FOUR of these next two things must happen:
2a: Next, Diancie will need to lose both weeks, and lose big enough to allow the Sunfloras to close the differential. Since the Sunfloras play Diancie in Week 7, this is the best opportunity for that.
2b: Additionally, Deez Nuts have to lose both weeks by hefty margins to allow Sunfloras to close that differential.
2c: Also, the Poliwags would need to either lose both weeks or lose one and tie one while giving up enough differential.
2d: Finally, the Kakunas would have to Win or Tie the Poliwags in Week 6, while losing (or tying if they tied W6) to Silicobra in Week 7.
If 3 out of 4 of these things happen at once, while the Sunfloras win big both weeks, then miracles are real and the Sunfloras are in the playoffs.
Saur True Venusaurs
404 Page Not Found