Undeleting this because enough people saw it, deleting it isn't fair to those who didn't, and it doesn't make any statements as to exact game state -- it merely operates off the stated assumptions in-thread.Even if the villagers accidentally lynch a villager today, the villagers still can win during the next day. If the village has narrowed the field of suspects down to 3 and can spare to kill 2 of those 3, then the village has a 2/3rds chance of winning this game (because they have 2 lynch cycles remaining before the village is left with 1 villager and 1 mafia). Therefore I believe any tie agreement right now is not worth it.
At least wait to cause a tie when the odds are 50/50, which would be after this lynch. After this lynch if the village has 2 suspects remaining they can still lynch one of the two and have a 50% chance of being right (the 50/50 makes more sense to be the tie scenario rather than rn when the village has the advantage)
Asking for a tie when the village at this point has a statistical advantage doesn't make much sense to me. Maybe my math is wrong since I'm a mafia noob but to me rn it seems weird to have the tie now.
/me end rant, don't take what I say too seriously. I am just trying to use math to justify Texas's position above my post.